Ploubidis G B, Sullivan A, Brown M, Goodman A
Department of Social Science,Centre for Longitudinal Studies,UCL - Institute of Education,University College London,London,UK.
Psychol Med. 2017 Jan;47(2):291-303. doi: 10.1017/S0033291716002464. Epub 2016 Oct 13.
This paper addresses the levels of psychological distress experienced at age 42 years by men and women born in 1958 and 1970. Comparing these cohorts born 12 years apart, we ask whether psychological distress has increased, and, if so, whether this increase can be explained by differences in their childhood conditions.
Data were utilized from two well-known population-based birth cohorts, the National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. Latent variable models and causal mediation methods were employed.
After establishing the measurement equivalence of psychological distress in the two cohorts we found that men and women born in 1970 reported higher levels of psychological distress compared with those born in 1958. These differences were more pronounced in men (b = 0.314, 95% confidence interval 0.252-0.375), with the magnitude of the effect being twice as strong compared with women (b = 0.147, 95% confidence interval 0.076-0.218). The effect of all hypothesized early-life mediators in explaining these differences was modest.
Our findings have implications for public health policy, indicating a higher average level of psychological distress among a cohort born in 1970 compared with a generation born 12 years earlier. Due to increases in life expectancy, more recently born cohorts are expected to live longer, which implies - if such differences persist - that they are likely to spend more years with mental health-related morbidity compared with earlier-born cohorts.
本文探讨了1958年和1970年出生的男性和女性在42岁时所经历的心理困扰水平。通过比较这两个相隔12年出生的队列,我们研究心理困扰是否有所增加,如果是,这种增加是否可以用他们童年环境的差异来解释。
数据来自两个著名的基于人群的出生队列,即全国儿童发展研究和1970年英国队列研究。采用了潜在变量模型和因果中介方法。
在确定两个队列中心理困扰的测量等效性后,我们发现1970年出生的男性和女性报告的心理困扰水平高于1958年出生的人。这些差异在男性中更为明显(b = 0.314,95%置信区间0.252 - 0.375),与女性相比,效应大小是女性的两倍(b = 0.147,95%置信区间0.076 - 0.218)。所有假设的早期生活中介因素在解释这些差异方面的作用都不大。
我们的研究结果对公共卫生政策具有启示意义,表明1970年出生的队列中心理困扰的平均水平高于早12年出生的一代。由于预期寿命的增加,最近出生的队列预计寿命更长,这意味着——如果这种差异持续存在——与早出生的队列相比,他们可能会有更多年与心理健康相关的发病情况。