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数学模型是理解和控制黄龙病传播的有力方法。

Mathematical models are a powerful method to understand and control the spread of Huanglongbing.

作者信息

Taylor Rachel A, Mordecai Erin A, Gilligan Christopher A, Rohr Jason R, Johnson Leah R

机构信息

Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida , Tampa, Florida , United States.

Department of Biology, Stanford University , Stanford, California , United States.

出版信息

PeerJ. 2016 Nov 3;4:e2642. doi: 10.7717/peerj.2642. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Huanglongbing (HLB), or citrus greening, is a global citrus disease occurring in almost all citrus growing regions. It causes substantial economic burdens to individual growers, citrus industries and governments. Successful management strategies to reduce disease burden are desperately needed but with so many possible interventions and combinations thereof it is difficult to know which are worthwhile or cost-effective. We review how mathematical models have yielded useful insights into controlling disease spread for other vector-borne plant diseases, and the small number of mathematical models of HLB. We adapt a malaria model to HLB, by including temperature-dependent psyllid traits, "flushing" of trees, and economic costs, to show how models can be used to highlight the parameters that require more data collection or that should be targeted for intervention. We analyze the most common intervention strategy, insecticide spraying, to determine the most cost-effective spraying strategy. We find that fecundity and feeding rate of the vector require more experimental data collection, for wider temperatures ranges. Also, the best strategy for insecticide intervention is to spray for more days rather than pay extra for a more efficient spray. We conclude that mathematical models are able to provide useful recommendations for managing HLB spread.

摘要

黄龙病(HLB),即柑橘绿变病,是一种全球性的柑橘病害,几乎在所有柑橘种植区都有发生。它给个体种植者、柑橘产业和政府带来了巨大的经济负担。迫切需要成功的管理策略来减轻病害负担,但由于有如此多可能的干预措施及其组合,很难知道哪些是值得的或具有成本效益的。我们回顾了数学模型如何为控制其他媒介传播的植物病害的疾病传播提供了有用的见解,以及少数关于黄龙病的数学模型。我们通过纳入温度依赖的木虱特征、树木的“抽梢”和经济成本,将一个疟疾模型应用于黄龙病,以展示模型如何用于突出需要更多数据收集或应作为干预目标的参数。我们分析了最常见的干预策略——喷洒杀虫剂,以确定最具成本效益的喷洒策略。我们发现,媒介的繁殖力和取食率需要在更宽的温度范围内进行更多的实验数据收集。此外,杀虫剂干预的最佳策略是喷洒更多天数,而不是为更高效的喷雾支付额外费用。我们得出结论,数学模型能够为管理黄龙病传播提供有用的建议。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2643/5101597/1e11f42359b8/peerj-04-2642-g001.jpg

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