Mills Kathryn, Baker Donovan, Pacey Verity, Wollin Martin, Drew Michael K
Discipline of Physiotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia; Centre for Physical Health, Macquarie University, Australia.
Discipline of Physiotherapy, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Macquarie University, Australia.
J Sci Med Sport. 2017 Jun;20(6):572-577. doi: 10.1016/j.jsams.2016.10.012. Epub 2016 Oct 29.
To identify the most accurate method of predicting peak height velocity in adolescents.
Systematic review.
A comprehensive literature search of six electronic databases and reference lists was conducted. Studies that met selection criteria of (1) observational longitudinal cohort study (2) reproducible method/s of predicting peak height velocity (3) minimum six-month follow-up (4) healthy male and/or female adolescent subjects, with the exception of participants with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, were considered for review. Studies were screened using a modified quality assessment checklist, with only those scoring >50% included. The type of surrogate measure of peak height velocity, its reliability and ability to predict peak height velocity were extracted from the year or stage immediately preceding peak height velocity. We defined "predict" as when both the estimates of effect and 95% confidence intervals of the surrogate occurred prior to the actual age of PHV.
The nine included studies examined three anthropometric, three equation and four radiographic-based surrogates for PHV. Of these, the radiographic measures were reported to exhibit moderate to high intra- and inter-rater reliability. Three of the four radiographic surrogates predicted PHV. Two anthropometric measures also predicted PHV but reliability of the measures is unknown. All equation-based methods predicted the timing of PHV to occur later than it actually happened when applied in the year prior to expected PHV.
In the year/stage immediately preceding peak height velocity, radiograph-based methods appear to be accurate and reliable surrogates.
确定预测青少年身高增长峰值速度最准确的方法。
系统评价。
对六个电子数据库及参考文献列表进行全面文献检索。纳入标准为：（1）观察性纵向队列研究；（2）可重复的预测身高增长峰值速度的方法；（3）至少六个月的随访；（4）健康的男性和/或女性青少年受试者（青少年特发性脊柱侧弯患者除外）。使用改良的质量评估清单对研究进行筛选，仅纳入得分>50%的研究。从身高增长峰值速度前一年或阶段提取身高增长峰值速度的替代测量类型、其可靠性及预测身高增长峰值速度的能力。我们将“预测”定义为替代指标的效应估计值和95%置信区间均出现在实际身高增长峰值速度年龄之前。
纳入的九项研究考察了三种人体测量学、三种公式法和四种基于影像学的身高增长峰值速度替代指标。其中，影像学测量指标具有中到高度的评分者内及评分者间可靠性。四种基于影像学的替代指标中有三种可预测身高增长峰值速度。两种人体测量学指标也可预测身高增长峰值速度，但这些指标的可靠性未知。所有基于公式的方法应用于预期身高增长峰值速度前一年时，预测的身高增长峰值速度出现时间均晚于实际发生时间。
在身高增长峰值速度前一年/阶段，基于影像学的方法似乎是准确可靠的替代指标。
