Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China.
Nat Commun. 2016 Nov 17;7:13530. doi: 10.1038/ncomms13530.
Wheat growth is sensitive to temperature, but the effect of future warming on yield is uncertain. Here, focusing on China, we compiled 46 observations of the sensitivity of wheat yield to temperature change (S, yield change per °C) from field warming experiments and 102 S estimates from local process-based and statistical models. The average S from field warming experiments, local process-based models and statistical models is -0.7±7.8(±s.d.)% per °C, -5.7±6.5% per °C and 0.4±4.4% per °C, respectively. Moreover, S is different across regions and warming experiments indicate positive S values in regions where growing-season mean temperature is low, and water supply is not limiting, and negative values elsewhere. Gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project appear to capture the spatial pattern of S deduced from warming observations. These results from local manipulative experiments could be used to improve crop models in the future.
小麦的生长对温度敏感，但未来变暖对产量的影响尚不确定。在这里，我们主要关注中国，从田间增温实验中整理了 46 个关于小麦产量对温度变化敏感性的观测值（S，每摄氏度产量的变化），以及 102 个来自本地过程模型和统计模型的 S 估计值。田间增温实验、本地过程模型和统计模型的平均 S 值分别为-0.7±7.8（±标准差）%/℃、-5.7±6.5%/℃和 0.4±4.4%/℃。此外，S 在不同地区有所不同，增温实验表明在生长季节平均温度较低、水分供应不限制的地区 S 值为正，而在其他地区 S 值为负。来自跨部门影响模型比较计划的网格化作物模型模拟似乎可以捕捉到从增温观测推断出的 S 的空间格局。这些来自局部操作实验的结果未来可用于改进作物模型。
