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非常罕见的夏季平均水汽压亏缺极端值的幅度急剧增加。

Drastic increase in the magnitude of very rare summer-mean vapor pressure deficit extremes.

作者信息

Hermann Mauro, Wernli Heini, Röthlisberger Matthias

机构信息

Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), ETH Zürich, CH-8092, Zurich, Switzerland.

SRF Meteo, Swiss Radio and Television (SRF), CH-8052, Zurich, Switzerland.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2024 Aug 15;15(1):7022. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-51305-w.

Abstract

Summers with extremely high vapor pressure deficit contribute to crop losses, ecosystem damages, and wildfires. Here, we identify very rare summer vapor pressure deficit extremes globally in reanalysis data and climate model simulations, and quantify the contributions of temperature and atmospheric moisture anomalies to their intensity. The simulations agree with reanalysis data regarding these physical characteristics of historic vapor pressure deficit extremes, and show a +33/+28% increase in their intensity in the northern/southern mid-latitudes over this century. About half of this drastic increase in the magnitude of extreme vapor pressure deficit anomalies is due to climate warming, since this quantity depends exponentially on temperature. Further contributing factors are increasing temperature variability (e.g., in Europe) and the expansion of soil moisture-limited regions. This study shows that to avoid amplified impacts of future vapor pressure deficit extremes, ecosystems and crops must become more resilient not only to an increasing mean vapor pressure deficit, but additionally also to larger seasonal anomalies of this quantity.

摘要

蒸气压亏缺极高的夏季会导致作物损失、生态系统破坏和野火。在此,我们在再分析数据和气候模型模拟中识别出全球极为罕见的夏季蒸气压亏缺极端情况,并量化温度和大气湿度异常对其强度的贡献。这些模拟结果在历史蒸气压亏缺极端情况的这些物理特征方面与再分析数据一致,并表明在本世纪,北半球/南半球中纬度地区其强度将增加33%/28%。极端蒸气压亏缺异常幅度的这种急剧增加约有一半是由于气候变暖,因为这个量与温度呈指数关系。其他促成因素包括温度变率增加(如在欧洲)以及土壤水分受限区域的扩大。这项研究表明,为避免未来蒸气压亏缺极端情况的放大影响,生态系统和作物不仅必须对不断增加的平均蒸气压亏缺更具恢复力,而且还必须对该量更大的季节性异常更具恢复力。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d785/11327300/47475747e244/41467_2024_51305_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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