Ruhm Christopher J
University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Health Econ. 2016 Nov;25 Suppl 2:6-24. doi: 10.1002/hec.3373.
This analysis summarizes prior research and uses national, US state and county-level data from 1976 to 2013 to examine whether the mortality effects of economic crises differ in kind from those of the more typical fluctuations. The tentative conclusion is that economic crises affect mortality rates (and presumably other measures of health) in the same way as less severe downturns - leading to improvements in physical health. The effects of severe national recessions in the USA appear to have a beneficial effect on mortality that is roughly twice as strong as that predicted by the elevated unemployment rates alone, while the higher predicted rate of suicides during typical periods of economic weakness is approximately offset during severe recessions. No consistent pattern is obtained for more localized economic crises occurring at the state level - some estimates suggest larger protective mortality effects while others indicate offsetting deleterious consequences. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
本分析总结了先前的研究，并使用1976年至2013年美国国家、州和县级的数据，以检验经济危机对死亡率的影响在性质上是否与更典型的经济波动有所不同。初步结论是，经济危机对死亡率（以及大概其他健康指标）的影响方式与不太严重的经济衰退相同——会导致身体健康状况改善。美国严重的全国性衰退对死亡率似乎有有益影响，其强度大约是仅由失业率上升所预测的影响的两倍，而在典型经济疲软时期较高的自杀预测率在严重衰退期间大约被抵消。对于州一级发生的更局部性的经济危机，未获得一致的模式——一些估计表明有更大的保护性死亡率影响，而另一些则表明有抵消性的有害后果。版权所有© 2016约翰·威利父子有限公司。
