Estimated risk of cross-infection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa in Danish cystic fibrosis patients.

During the period 1970-1987 the number of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients treated at the Danish CF Center increased from 54 to 226. The prevalence of patients with chronic P. aeruginosa infection (CF + P) increased from 35% to 59%, whereafter it decreased to 54%. The yearly incidence of new CF + P patients averaged 8.4% in 1970-1975, 17% in 1976-80, 6.5% in 1981-85, and 3% in 1986-87. These changes correlated to the increased "contact density" between CF + P and non-infected CF patients (CF-P) due to intensified treatment starting in 1976, and the reduced "contact density" due to separation of the two groups starting in 1981. The same trends were observed during an epidemic spread of a multiply resistant P. aeruginosa in the CF + P group, which was also interrupted by separation of two groups of patients, with and without the multiply resistant strain. The observed prevalences of CF + P in different age groups of patients are in accordance with a 20% incidence/year in patients older than three years. The highest probability of acquiring chronic P. aeruginosa infection was calculated to be 2%/day and the lowest 0.09%/day spent in the Centre. By employing a simple mathematical model of the spread of infectious diseases it can be shown, that the highest incidence of CF + P is present when the prevalence of CF + P is 20-80%, and that an increase in the total number of patients also increases the incidence of CF + P unless the patients are divided into smaller groups. The observations in the Danish CF Centre are in accordance with this model.