Ballabio Cristiano, Borrelli Pasquale, Spinoni Jonathan, Meusburger Katrin, Michaelides Silas, Beguería Santiago, Klik Andreas, Petan Sašo, Janeček Miloslav, Olsen Preben, Aalto Juha, Lakatos Mónika, Rymszewicz Anna, Dumitrescu Alexandru, Tadić Melita Perčec, Diodato Nazzareno, Kostalova Julia, Rousseva Svetla, Banasik Kazimierz, Alewell Christine, Panagos Panos
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate D - Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy; Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Bernoullistrasse 30, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Feb 1;579:1298-1315. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.123. Epub 2016 Nov 30.
Rainfall erosivity as a dynamic factor of soil loss by water erosion is modelled intra-annually for the first time at European scale. The development of Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and its 2015 update with the extension to monthly component allowed to develop monthly and seasonal R-factor maps and assess rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally. During winter months, significant rainfall erosivity is present only in part of the Mediterranean countries. A sudden increase of erosivity occurs in major part of European Union (except Mediterranean basin, western part of Britain and Ireland) in May and the highest values are registered during summer months. Starting from September, R-factor has a decreasing trend. The mean rainfall erosivity in summer is almost 4 times higher (315MJmmhah) compared to winter (87MJmmhah). The Cubist model has been selected among various statistical models to perform the spatial interpolation due to its excellent performance, ability to model non-linearity and interpretability. The monthly prediction is an order more difficult than the annual one as it is limited by the number of covariates and, for consistency, the sum of all months has to be close to annual erosivity. The performance of the Cubist models proved to be generally high, resulting in R values between 0.40 and 0.64 in cross-validation. The obtained months show an increasing trend of erosivity occurring from winter to summer starting from western to Eastern Europe. The maps also show a clear delineation of areas with different erosivity seasonal patterns, whose spatial outline was evidenced by cluster analysis. The monthly erosivity maps can be used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events. Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year.
降雨侵蚀力作为水蚀造成土壤流失的一个动态因素，首次在欧洲尺度上进行年内建模。欧洲尺度降雨侵蚀力数据库（REDES）的开发及其2015年更新并扩展到月度数据，使得能够绘制月度和季节R因子图，并在空间和时间上评估降雨侵蚀力。在冬季，显著的降雨侵蚀力仅出现在部分地中海国家。5月，欧盟大部分地区（除地中海盆地、英国西部和爱尔兰）的侵蚀力突然增加，夏季达到最高值。从9月开始，R因子呈下降趋势。夏季的平均降雨侵蚀力（315MJ·mm/ha·h）几乎是冬季（87MJ·mm/ha·h）的4倍。由于其出色的性能、对非线性建模的能力和可解释性，在各种统计模型中选择了Cubist模型来进行空间插值。月度预测比年度预测困难一个量级，因为它受到协变量数量的限制，并且为了保持一致性，所有月份的总和必须接近年度侵蚀力。Cubist模型的性能总体上较高，在交叉验证中R值在0.40至0.64之间。所得到的月份显示，从冬季到夏季，侵蚀力呈增加趋势，且从西欧向东欧发展。这些地图还清晰地划分了具有不同侵蚀力季节模式的区域，其空间轮廓通过聚类分析得到了证实。月度侵蚀力图可用于开发综合指标，绘制年内变化和侵蚀事件的集中情况。因此，降雨侵蚀力的时空映射有助于确定土壤流失风险最高的月份和区域，以便在一年的不同季节采取保护措施。
