Panagos Panos, Ballabio Cristiano, Meusburger Katrin, Spinoni Jonathan, Alewell Christine, Borrelli Pasquale
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
Environmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Switzerland.
J Hydrol (Amst). 2017 May;548:251-262. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.006.
The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha h yr till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April-September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.
通过建立土壤侵蚀中两个最活跃因素（即降雨侵蚀力和土地覆盖变化）的模型情景，可以回应制定土壤侵蚀变化趋势的政策要求。最近开发的欧洲尺度降雨侵蚀力数据库（REDES）以及用于对降雨侵蚀力数据进行空间插值的统计方法，有可能成为基于气候情景预测未来降雨侵蚀力的有用知识。使用全面的统计建模方法（高斯过程回归），并选择最合适的协变量（月降水量、温度数据集和生物气候层），能够基于气候变化情景预测降雨侵蚀力。预计到2050年，欧盟和瑞士的平均降雨侵蚀力将达到857兆焦耳·毫米·公顷·小时·年，与基准数据（2010年）相比相对增加18%。根据最易发生侵蚀月份（炎热期：4月至9月）的未来预测，欧洲大陆的变化是不均匀的。输出结果报告了考虑气候模型不确定性的泛欧洲未来降雨侵蚀力预测。
