Russell Robin E, Katz Rachel A, Richgels Katherine L D, Walsh Daniel P, Grant Evan H C
Emerg Infect Dis. 2017 Jan;23(1):1-6. doi: 10.3201/eid2301.161452.
The rapid emergence and reemergence of zoonotic diseases requires the ability to rapidly evaluate and implement optimal management decisions. Actions to control or mitigate the effects of emerging pathogens are commonly delayed because of uncertainty in the estimates and the predicted outcomes of the control tactics. The development of models that describe the best-known information regarding the disease system at the early stages of disease emergence is an essential step for optimal decision-making. Models can predict the potential effects of the pathogen, provide guidance for assessing the likelihood of success of different proposed management actions, quantify the uncertainty surrounding the choice of the optimal decision, and highlight critical areas for immediate research. We demonstrate how to develop models that can be used as a part of a decision-making framework to determine the likelihood of success of different management actions given current knowledge.
人畜共患病的迅速出现和再次出现需要具备快速评估和实施最佳管理决策的能力。由于控制策略的估计和预测结果存在不确定性，控制或减轻新出现病原体影响的行动通常会延迟。在疾病出现的早期阶段，开发描述疾病系统最知名信息的模型是做出最佳决策的关键一步。模型可以预测病原体的潜在影响，为评估不同提议管理行动成功的可能性提供指导，量化围绕最佳决策选择的不确定性，并突出需要立即开展研究的关键领域。我们展示了如何开发可作为决策框架一部分的模型，以根据当前知识确定不同管理行动成功的可能性。
