Mullins Jocelyn C, Garofolo Giuliano, Van Ert Matthew, Fasanella Antonio, Lukhnova Larisa, Hugh-Jones Martin E, Blackburn Jason K
Spatial Epidemiology & Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2013 Aug 19;8(8):e72451. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072451. eCollection 2013.
We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models.
我们对美国、意大利和哈萨克斯坦一个在全球范围内成功的炭疽芽孢杆菌亚谱系的生态位进行了建模，以更好地了解炭疽的地理分布以及区域种群与生态之间的潜在关联。我们开发了针对特定国家的生态位模型，并将其相互转移到其他国家，以确定在新的环境中是否能够准确预测病原体的存在情况。本土模型能够准确预测每个国家内的流行区域，但转移后的模型未能预测其他国家已知的发病情况。虽然应考虑变量选择的影响和遗传数据的局限性，但结果表明每个国家内的炭疽芽孢杆菌种群存在不同的生态关联，这可能反映了该亚谱系内的生态位特化。我们的研究结果为开发针对这种病原体的准确生态位模型提供了指导；模型应在本土环境中按区域开发，并考虑种群遗传学因素。进一步的基因组分析将增进我们对这些国家间炭疽芽孢杆菌遗传-生态动态的理解，并可能导致用于监测和主动疫苗接种计划的更精确预测模型。进一步的研究应评估本土模型和转移模型变量选择的影响。
