Levine Orin S
Vaccine Delivery Program, Global Development Division, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, 500 Fifth Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, United States.
Vaccine. 2017 Jan 20;35 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):A6-A9. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.09.071. Epub 2016 Dec 22.
Recent projections suggest that by 2035 global health will look dramatically different than it does today. In what's called a 'grand convergence' the world is likely to be characterized by far more similarities than differences in the prevailing health and medical problems across populations. This manuscript considers how key drivers for vaccine use and uptake might change as a result of the grand convergence and how decisions taken now might anticipate those changes in ways that position immunizations to continue playing an important role in the future.
近期预测表明,到2035年全球健康状况将与如今大不相同。在所谓的“大趋同”中,全球人口在主要健康和医疗问题上的相似之处可能会远多于差异。本论文探讨了疫苗使用和接种的关键驱动因素可能会因大趋同而发生怎样的变化,以及现在做出的决策如何以某种方式预见这些变化,从而使免疫接种在未来继续发挥重要作用。