Durant Sarah M, Mitchell Nicholas, Groom Rosemary, Pettorelli Nathalie, Ipavec Audrey, Jacobson Andrew P, Woodroffe Rosie, Böhm Monika, Hunter Luke T B, Becker Matthew S, Broekhuis Femke, Bashir Sultana, Andresen Leah, Aschenborn Ortwin, Beddiaf Mohammed, Belbachir Farid, Belbachir-Bazi Amel, Berbash Ali, Brandao de Matos Machado Iracelma, Breitenmoser Christine, Chege Monica, Cilliers Deon, Davies-Mostert Harriet, Dickman Amy J, Ezekiel Fabiano, Farhadinia Mohammad S, Funston Paul, Henschel Philipp, Horgan Jane, de Iongh Hans H, Jowkar Houman, Klein Rebecca, Lindsey Peter Andrew, Marker Laurie, Marnewick Kelly, Melzheimer Joerg, Merkle Johnathan, M'soka Jassiel, Msuha Maurus, O'Neill Helen, Parker Megan, Purchase Gianetta, Sahailou Samaila, Saidu Yohanna, Samna Abdoulkarim, Schmidt-Küntzel Anne, Selebatso Eda, Sogbohossou Etotépé A, Soultan Alaaeldin, Stone Emma, van der Meer Esther, van Vuuren Rudie, Wykstra Mary, Young-Overton Kim
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom;
Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Jan 17;114(3):528-533. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1611122114. Epub 2016 Dec 27.
Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.
建立和维护保护区是生物多样性保护的关键手段。然而，这种方法对许多物种来说并不足够，特别是那些分布范围广且数量稀少的物种。猎豹（Acinonyx jubatus）就是这样一个物种，其生存面临着极端挑战。在此，我们表明，全球猎豹种群估计约有7100只，仅分布在其历史分布范围的9%以内。然而，目前其大部分分布范围（77%）位于保护区之外，该物种在这些区域面临多种威胁。情景建模显示，在保护区外种群增长率受到抑制的情况下，随着受保护种群比例的下降，灭绝率会迅速上升。敏感性分析表明，如果保护区内的增长率要弥补保护区外的下降，就必须很高。猎豹分布范围近期的迅速缩小证明了其对快速衰退的易感性，这支持了将国际自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录的威胁评估提升为濒危等级。我们的结果适用于其他依赖保护的物种，当保护区外信息不足时，这些物种的威胁可能会被系统性低估。归根结底，要保护这些物种中的许多物种，就需要在保护方面进行范式转变，转向一种整体方法，鼓励在大面积的多用途景观中进行保护并促进人类与野生动物的可持续共存。
