Evangelista Paul H, Young Nicholas E, Schulte Darin K, Tricorache Patricia D, Luizza Matthew W, Durant Sarah M, Jones Kelly W, Mitchell Nicholas, Maule Tomas, Ali Abdullahi H, Tesfai Redae T, Engelstad Peder S
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
Division of International Conservation, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Falls Church, Virginia, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2025 Jun;39(3):e14412. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14412. Epub 2024 Oct 25.
Less than 7000 cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) persist in Africa. Although human-wildlife conflict, habitat degradation, and loss of prey are major threats to cheetah populations, illegal trade in live cubs for pets may have the most significant impact on populations in the Horn of Africa. We developed a novel, stepwise decision support tool to predict probable trafficking routes by leveraging the power of distinct modeling approaches. First, we created a cheetah habitat suitability index (HSI) to determine where source cheetah populations may occur. We then created a trafficking network model linking known and predicted cheetah populations with documented destinations in the Arabian Peninsula. A significant area in Eastern Ethiopia and Northern Somalia was estimated to harbor undocumented cheetahs. When these predicted populations were used as a supply source, the trafficking network model showed multiple routes passing through Somaliland and across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen, supporting the notion that undocumented cheetahs may be supplying pet market demands. Though we demonstrate how our decision support tool can inform law enforcement, conservation strategies, and community engagement, we caution that our results are not fully validated due to limited accessibility, alternative trafficking routes, and the cryptic nature of illegal wildlife trade.
非洲现存的猎豹（Acinonyx jubatus）不足7000只。尽管人类与野生动物的冲突、栖息地退化以及猎物减少是猎豹种群面临的主要威胁，但非法买卖幼崽作为宠物交易可能对非洲之角的猎豹种群产生最为重大的影响。我们开发了一种全新的、逐步推进的决策支持工具，通过运用不同建模方法的力量来预测可能的贩运路线。首先，我们创建了一个猎豹栖息地适宜性指数（HSI），以确定可能存在猎豹种群的源头地区。接着，我们构建了一个贩运网络模型，将已知的和预测的猎豹种群与阿拉伯半岛有记录的目的地联系起来。据估计，埃塞俄比亚东部和索马里北部的大片区域藏有无记录的猎豹。当把这些预测的猎豹种群作为供应源时，贩运网络模型显示出多条路线，这些路线穿过索马里兰并跨越亚丁湾到达也门，这支持了无记录的猎豹可能在满足宠物市场需求这一观点。尽管我们展示了我们的决策支持工具如何为执法、保护策略及社区参与提供信息，但我们提醒，由于获取信息有限、存在其他贩运路线以及非法野生动物贸易的隐秘性，我们的结果尚未得到充分验证。
