Hoang Quoc Cuong, Henrik Salje, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer, In-Kyu Yoon, Chau Nguyen Van Vinh, Hung Nguyen Thanh, Tuan Ha Manh, Lan Phan Trong, Willis Bridget, Nisalak Ananda, Kalayanarooj Siripen, Cummings Derek A T, Simmons Cameron P
Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 Dec 29;10(12):e0005188. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188. eCollection 2016 Dec.
Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.
We used 2003-2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74-0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46-0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.
Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
胡志明市和曼谷登革热流行程度很高。疾病模式在多大程度上归因于当地因素与区域因素仍不清楚。为填补这一空白，我们比较了两地的关键传播参数。
我们使用2003 - 2009年按年龄分层的病例数据来构建催化传播模型。此外，我们比较了每个城市血清型的空间聚集情况。我们发现，两个城市的年病例数高度一致（相关性为0.77，95%置信区间：0.74 - 0.79），年感染率也是如此（相关性为0.57，95%置信区间：0.46 - 0.68）。血清型的相似性较低，血清型特异性相关性从登革病毒1型的0.65到登革病毒4型的 - 0.14不等。在胡志明市，观察到血清型在距离<500米处有显著的空间聚集，这与曼谷之前的观察结果相似。
这两个中心的登革热动态具有可比性。血清型分布的低相关性表明，相似的建筑环境、病媒种群和气候，而非病毒传播驱动了这些观察结果。
