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J Vet Med. 2013;2013:949638. doi: 10.1155/2013/949638. Epub 2013 Aug 12.
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A spatial, social and environmental study of tuberculosis in China using statistical and GIS technology.一项运用统计和地理信息系统技术对中国结核病进行的空间、社会及环境研究。
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An update on the epidemiology and pathology of African swine fever.非洲猪瘟流行病学与病理学的最新情况
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Effects of environmental change on zoonotic disease risk: an ecological primer.环境变化对人畜共患病风险的影响：生态学基础
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Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa.用于预测非洲猪瘟在非洲地方流行适宜性的空间多标准决策分析
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8
Assessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar.评估野猪将非洲猪瘟引入欧盟的风险。
Transbound Emerg Dis. 2015 Jun;62(3):272-9. doi: 10.1111/tbed.12129. Epub 2013 Aug 8.
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Dilution effect in bovine tuberculosis: risk factors for regional disease occurrence in Africa.牛结核病的稀释效应：非洲区域性疾病发生的风险因素。
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African swine fever (ASF): five years around Europe.非洲猪瘟（ASF）：五年在欧洲。
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与西非和东非非洲猪瘟发生相关的地区层面风险因素。

Regional level risk factors associated with the occurrence of African swine fever in West and East Africa.

作者信息

Huang Zheng Y X, van Langevelde Frank, Honer Karanina J, Naguib Marc, de Boer Willem F

机构信息

College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, 210023, Nanjing, China.

Resource Ecology Group, Wageningen University, 6708PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

出版信息

Parasit Vectors. 2017 Jan 7;10(1):16. doi: 10.1186/s13071-016-1953-z.

DOI:10.1186/s13071-016-1953-z
PMID:28061875
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5219763/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

African swine fever (ASF) causes severe socio-economic impacts due to high mortality and trade restrictions. Many risk factors of ASF have been identified at farm level. However, understanding the risk factors, especially wild suid hosts, determining ASF transmission at regional level remains limited.

METHODS

Based on ASF outbreak data in domestic pigs during 2006-2014, we here tested, separately for West and East Africa, which risk factors were linked to ASF presence at a regional level, using generalized linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Our results show that ASF infections in the preceding year was an important predictor for ASF presence in both West and East Africa. Both pig density and human density were positively associated with ASF presence in West Africa. In East Africa, ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs were also correlated with higher percentages of areas occupied by giant forest hogs and by high-tick-risk areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that regional ASF risk in East Africa and in West Africa were associated with different sets of risk factors. Regional ASF risk in West Africa mainly followed the domestic cycle, whereas the sylvatic cycle may influence regional ASF risk in East Africa. With these findings, we contribute to the better understanding of the risk factors of ASF occurrence at regional scales that may aid the implementation of effective control measures.

摘要

背景

非洲猪瘟（ASF）因高死亡率和贸易限制而造成严重的社会经济影响。在农场层面已确定了许多非洲猪瘟的风险因素。然而，对于风险因素，尤其是野猪宿主的了解，以及在区域层面确定非洲猪瘟的传播情况仍然有限。

方法

基于2006 - 2014年家猪的非洲猪瘟疫情数据，我们在此分别针对西非和东非，使用广义线性混合模型测试了哪些风险因素与区域层面的非洲猪瘟存在相关。

结果

我们的结果表明，上一年的非洲猪瘟感染是西非和东非非洲猪瘟存在的重要预测指标。猪密度和人口密度与西非的非洲猪瘟存在均呈正相关。在东非，家猪的非洲猪瘟疫情也与巨林猪占据的较高面积百分比以及高蜱风险区域相关。

结论

我们的结果表明，东非和西非的区域非洲猪瘟风险与不同的风险因素集相关。西非的区域非洲猪瘟风险主要遵循家猪传播周期，而野生动物传播周期可能会影响东非的区域非洲猪瘟风险。通过这些发现，我们有助于更好地理解区域尺度上非洲猪瘟发生的风险因素，这可能有助于实施有效的控制措施。