School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Fujian 361005, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2019 Jun 1;667:658-670. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.405. Epub 2019 Feb 28.
Carbon emissions caused by human activities have exploded in recent years. Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) is a feasible way to reduce CO. Little research concentrated on the ETS fines for excessive emission. We analyzed the different impacts of fine mechanisms in ETS by applying computable general equilibrium model and constructed seven scenarios. We found that although Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss is not significant when applying ETS market, GDP loss would increase rapidly when ETS fine increases. The CO abatement effect of alterable ETS fine is a bit better than that of fixed fine. Higher fines will cause relatively lower carbon intensity compared with lower ETS fines, which is caused by different emission reduction effect in different scenarios. It seems that ETS fines cannot affect reduction costs as significantly as GDP loss rate and emission reduction. ETS fine can affect significantly ETS cost of enterprises, commodity price and output of energy-intensive industries as well as GDP loss and CO abatement, but can less influence carbon emission intensity and reduction cost. A proper ETS fine is very important and ETS fines in China's ETS market are 2-3 times of carbon price. We consider that the current government design is reasonable.
近年来，人类活动导致的碳排放急剧增加。排放交易体系（ETS）是减少 CO2 排放的一种可行方法。但很少有研究集中在 ETS 对过度排放的罚款上。我们通过应用可计算一般均衡模型来分析 ETS 中不同罚款机制的影响，并构建了七个情景。我们发现，虽然在应用 ETS 市场时 GDP 损失并不显著，但当 ETS 罚款增加时，GDP 损失将迅速增加。可调整 ETS 罚款的 CO2 减排效果略好于固定罚款。较高的罚款将导致相对较低的碳强度，这是由于不同情景下的减排效果不同。似乎 ETS 罚款不能像 GDP 损失率和减排那样显著影响减排成本。ETS 罚款可以显著影响企业的 ETS 成本、商品价格和能源密集型产业的产出以及 GDP 损失和 CO2 减排，但对碳强度和减排成本的影响较小。适当的 ETS 罚款非常重要，中国 ETS 市场的 ETS 罚款是碳价的 2-3 倍。我们认为当前的政府设计是合理的。
