Centre for Environment and Population Health (CEPH), Griffith University, Queensland, Australia.
Health Environment Management Agency, Ministry of Health, Vietnam.
Sci Total Environ. 2017 Mar 1;581-582:766-772. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.006. Epub 2017 Jan 5.
This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5days (95% CI 0.3-10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3days and 6days (95% CI 0.7-2.7 and 95% CI 0.8-2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6days (95% CI 0.2-0.9 and 95% CI 0.1-0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.
本研究考察了越南湄公河三角洲地区手足口病（HFMD）的时空模式。采用时间序列分析研究了 HFMD 与气候因素之间的时间模式，同时采用回顾性时空扫描检测了该疾病的高风险时空聚集。平均温度每升高 1°C，HFMD 发病率在滞后 5 天增加 5.6%（95%CI 0.3-10.9）。湿度每增加 1%，HFMD 发病率在滞后 3 天和 6 天分别增加 1.7%（95%CI 0.7-2.7 和 95%CI 0.8-2.6）。降雨量每增加 1 个单位，HFMD 发病率在滞后 1 天和 6 天分别增加 0.5%（95%CI 0.2-0.9 和 95%CI 0.1-0.8）。预测模型表明，HFMD 的高峰期是 10 月至 12 月——湄公河三角洲地区的雨季。大多数高风险集群位于人口密度高且靠近交通路线的地区。研究结果表明，HFMD 受气候因素影响，由于与气候变化有关的天气事件，未来发病率可能会增加。
