Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Academic Workplace Youth at Risk, Zutphen, Netherlands.
Assessment. 2022 Mar;29(2):181-197. doi: 10.1177/1073191120959740. Epub 2020 Sep 23.
Most juvenile risk assessment tools heavily rely on a risk-focused approach. Less attention has been devoted to protective factors. This study examines the predictive validity of protective factors in addition to risk factors, and developmental differences in psychometric properties of juvenile risk assessment. For a national Dutch sample of 354 juvenile and young adult offenders (16-26 years) risk and protective factors were retrospectively assessed at discharge from seven juvenile justice institutions, using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk - Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). Results show moderate validity for both tools predicting general, violent, and nonviolent offending at different follow-up times. The SAPROF-YV provided incremental predictive validity over the SAVRY, and predictive validity was stronger for younger offenders. Evidently both the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV seem valid tools for the assessment of recidivism risk in juvenile and young adult offenders. Results highlight the importance of protective factors, especially in juvenile offenders, emphasizing the need for a balanced risk assessment.
大多数青少年风险评估工具严重依赖风险为导向的方法。对保护因素的关注较少。本研究除了风险因素外，还考察了保护因素的预测效度，以及青少年风险评估的心理测量特性的发展差异。对于来自七个青少年司法机构的 354 名青少年和年轻成年罪犯（16-26 岁）的全国荷兰样本，使用青少年暴力风险结构化评估（SAVRY）和青少年暴力风险保护因素结构化评估 - 青年版（SAPROF-YV）对风险和保护因素进行了回顾性评估。结果表明，这两种工具对于预测不同随访时间的一般、暴力和非暴力犯罪均具有中等有效性。SAPROF-YV 比 SAVRY 提供了增量预测有效性，而对于年轻罪犯，预测有效性更强。显然，SAVRY 和 SAPROF-YV 都是青少年和年轻成年罪犯累犯风险评估的有效工具。结果强调了保护因素的重要性，特别是在青少年罪犯中，强调需要进行平衡的风险评估。
