Nilsson Philip, Stigson Helena, Ohlin Maria, Strandroth Johan
Folksam Reasearch, Bohusgatan 14, 10660 Stockholm, Sweden.
Folksam Reasearch, Bohusgatan 14, 10660 Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Applied Mechanics, Chalmers University of Technology, Hörsalsvägen 7a, 96 Gothenburg, Sweden.
Accid Anal Prev. 2017 Mar;100:30-36. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.12.020. Epub 2017 Jan 10.
Several studies have estimated the health effects of active commuting, where a transport mode shift from car to bicycle reduces risk of mortality and morbidity. Previous studies mainly assess the negative aspects of bicycling by referring to fatalities or police reported injuries. However, most bicycle crashes are not reported by the police and therefore hospital reported data would cover a much higher rate of injuries from bicycle crashes. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect on injuries and fatalities from traffic crashes when shifting mode of transport from car to bicycle by using hospital reported data.
This present study models the change in number of injuries and fatalities due to a transport mode change using a given flow change from car to bicycle and current injury and fatality risk per distance for bicyclists and car occupants.
show that bicyclists have a much higher injury risk (29 times) and fatality risk (10 times) than car occupants. In a scenario where car occupants in Stockholm living close to their work place shifts transport mode to bicycling, injuries, fatalities and health loss expressed in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were estimated to increase. The vast majority of the estimated DALY increase was caused by severe injuries and fatalities and it tends to fluctuate so that the number of severe crashes may exceed the estimation with a large margin.
Although the estimated increase of traffic crashes and DALY, a transport mode shift is seen as a way towards a more sustainable society. Thus, this present study highlights the need of strategic preventive measures in order to minimize the negative impacts from increased bicycling.
多项研究估计了主动通勤对健康的影响，即从汽车出行转变为自行车出行可降低死亡率和发病率。以往的研究主要通过提及死亡人数或警方报告的受伤情况来评估骑自行车的负面影响。然而，大多数自行车事故并未被警方报告，因此医院报告的数据将涵盖更高比例的自行车事故受伤情况。本研究的目的是利用医院报告的数据，估计交通方式从汽车转变为自行车时对交通事故受伤和死亡的影响。
本研究使用从汽车到自行车的给定流量变化以及当前骑自行车者和汽车乘客每公里的受伤和死亡风险，对交通方式变化导致的受伤和死亡人数变化进行建模。
表明骑自行车者的受伤风险（29倍）和死亡风险（10倍）比汽车乘客高得多。在斯德哥尔摩，居住在工作地点附近的汽车乘客将交通方式转变为骑自行车的情景下，估计受伤、死亡和以伤残调整生命年（DALY）表示的健康损失会增加。估计的DALY增加的绝大部分是由重伤和死亡造成的，并且往往会波动，以至于严重事故的数量可能会大大超过估计值。
尽管估计交通事故和DALY会增加，但交通方式的转变被视为迈向更可持续社会的一种方式。因此，本研究强调需要采取战略预防措施，以尽量减少骑自行车人数增加带来的负面影响。
