Department of Psychiatry,Department of Human and Molecular Genetics,Virginia Institute for Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics,Virginia Commonwealth University,Richmond,VA,USA.
Center for Primary Health Care Research,Lund University,Malmö,Sweden.
Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci. 2017 Dec;26(6):655-663. doi: 10.1017/S2045796016000640. Epub 2017 Jan 18.
Marriage is associated with a reduced rate of criminal recidivism, but the underlying mechanisms have only partly been elucidated. We seek to clarify the nature of the association between marriage and recidivism and how that relationship may be moderated as a function of gender, deviance of spouse, a history of violence and familial risk.
We utilise a longitudinal cohort design consisting of Swedish men (n = 239 328) and women (n = 72 280), born between 1958 and 1986, who were convicted of at least one crime before age 20 and were not married prior to age 20. The analyses used Cox regression with marriage as a time-dependent covariate. We also perform co-relative analyses in sibling and first cousin pairs.
Marriage after a first crime substantially reduces risk of recidivism in both males (hazard ratio (HR) with key covariates and 95% confidence intervals 0.55, 0.53-0.57) and females (HR = 0.38, 0.34-0.42), although the effect is stronger in females. Marriage to a deviant spouse increases recidivism rates in males. In males, a history of violent criminality and high familial risk, respectively, decrease and increase sensitivity to the protective effect of marriage on recidivism. Consistent with a causal effect of marriage on recidivism, marriage was associated with a decline in risk for criminal relapse comparable with that in the population in both male-male sibling pairs (raw HR = 0.53, 0.45-0.62) and cousin pairs (HR = 0.55, 0.47, 0.65) concordant for prior convictions.
The protective effect of marriage on risk for criminal recidivism is likely largely causal and is of importance in both males and females. Those at high familial risk for criminal behaviour are more sensitive to the protective effects of marriage.
婚姻与犯罪再犯率降低有关，但其中的潜在机制尚未完全阐明。我们旨在阐明婚姻与再犯之间的关系，并探讨这种关系如何因性别、配偶的越轨行为、暴力史和家庭风险而发生变化。
我们利用了一个由瑞典男性（n=239328）和女性（n=72280）组成的纵向队列设计，这些人出生于 1958 年至 1986 年之间，在 20 岁之前至少被判过一次罪，并且在 20 岁之前没有结婚。分析采用 Cox 回归，婚姻作为时间依赖协变量。我们还在兄弟姐妹和表亲对中进行了相对分析。
首次犯罪后结婚大大降低了男性（有和无主要协变量的风险比（HR）和 95%置信区间为 0.55，0.53-0.57）和女性（HR=0.38，0.34-0.42）再犯的风险，尽管女性的效果更强。与不轨配偶结婚会增加男性的再犯率。在男性中，暴力犯罪史和高家庭风险分别降低和增加了婚姻对再犯的保护作用的敏感性。与婚姻对再犯的因果效应一致，在男性-男性兄弟姐妹对（原始 HR=0.53，0.45-0.62）和表亲对（HR=0.55，0.47，0.65）中，婚姻与犯罪复发风险的降低相关，这些人在先前的定罪中是一致的。
婚姻对犯罪再犯风险的保护作用可能在很大程度上是因果关系的，并对男性和女性都很重要。那些犯罪行为的家庭风险较高的人对婚姻的保护作用更为敏感。
