Brown Shelley L, St Amand Michelle D, Zamble Edward
Department of Psychology.
Law Hum Behav. 2009 Feb;33(1):25-45. doi: 10.1007/s10979-008-9139-7. Epub 2008 Jul 16.
A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD=19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC=.89, CI=.81-.93) significantly (p<.01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC=.81, CI=.73-.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.
采用三波前瞻性面板设计，以评估静态和动态风险因素在多大程度上能够预测从加拿大联邦监狱释放的136名成年男性罪犯样本中的再次犯罪情况。静态测量仅在释放前评估一次，而动态测量在三个不同时间点进行评估：释放前、释放后1个月和3个月。在平均10.2个月的随访期（标准差=19.2）内对再次犯罪进行编码。进行了一系列带有时间依存协变量的Cox回归生存分析和接受者操作特征（ROC）分析，以评估预测效度。尽管静态和时间依存动态模型相结合（曲线下面积[AUC]=0.89，可信区间[CI]=0.81-0.93）显著（p<0.01）优于纯静态模型（AUC=0.81，CI=0.73-0.87），但可信区间在一定程度上确实存在重叠。讨论了动态风险评估和管理的意义。
