Thom Dominik, Rammer Werner, Dirnböck Thomas, Müller Jörg, Kobler Johannes, Katzensteiner Klaus, Helm Norbert, Seidl Rupert
Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest - and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter-Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria.
Department for Ecosystem Research & Environmental Information Management, Environment Agency Austria, Spittelauer Lände 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria.
J Appl Ecol. 2017 Feb;54(1):28-38. doi: 10.1111/1365-2664.12644. Epub 2016 Mar 28.
The ongoing changes to climate challenge the conservation of forest biodiversity. Yet, in thermally limited systems, such as temperate forests, not all species groups might be affected negatively. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the disturbance regime have the potential to mitigate climate-related impacts on forest species. Here, we (i) investigated the potential long-term effect of climate change on biodiversity in a mountain forest landscape, (ii) assessed the effects of different disturbance frequencies, severities and sizes and (iii) identified biodiversity hotspots at the landscape scale to facilitate conservation management. We employed the model iLand to dynamically simulate the tree vegetation on 13 865 ha of the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria over 1000 years, and investigated 36 unique combinations of different disturbance and climate scenarios. We used simulated changes in tree cover and composition as well as projected temperature and precipitation to predict changes in the diversity of Araneae, Carabidae, ground vegetation, Hemiptera, Hymenoptera, Mollusca, saproxylic beetles, Symphyta and Syrphidae, using empirical response functions. Our findings revealed widely varying responses of biodiversity indicators to climate change. Five indicators showed overall negative effects, with Carabidae, saproxylic beetles and tree species diversity projected to decrease by more than 33%. Six indicators responded positively to climate change, with Hymenoptera, Mollusca and Syrphidae diversity projected to increase more than twofold. Disturbances were generally beneficial for the studied indicators of biodiversity. Our results indicated that increasing disturbance frequency and severity have a positive effect on biodiversity, while increasing disturbance size has a moderately negative effect. Spatial hotspots of biodiversity were currently found in low- to mid-elevation areas of the mountainous study landscape, but shifted to higher-elevation zones under changing climate conditions. . Our results highlight that intensifying disturbance regimes may alleviate some of the impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity. However, the projected shift in biodiversity hotspots is a challenge for static conservation areas. In this regard, overlapping hotspots under current and expected future conditions highlight priority areas for robust conservation management.
气候的持续变化对森林生物多样性的保护构成了挑战。然而，在诸如温带森林等受热量限制的系统中，并非所有物种组都会受到负面影响。此外，干扰 regime 的同时变化有可能减轻气候对森林物种的相关影响。在此，我们（i）研究了气候变化对山区森林景观生物多样性的潜在长期影响，（ii）评估了不同干扰频率、强度和规模的影响，以及（iii）在景观尺度上识别生物多样性热点，以促进保护管理。我们使用 iLand 模型对奥地利卡尔卡阿尔卑斯国家公园 13865 公顷的树木植被进行了 1000 年的动态模拟，并研究了 36 种不同干扰和气候情景的独特组合。我们利用树木覆盖和组成的模拟变化以及预测的温度和降水，使用经验响应函数来预测蜘蛛目、步甲科、地面植被、半翅目、膜翅目、软体动物、蛀干甲虫、叶蜂科和食蚜蝇科的多样性变化。我们的研究结果揭示了生物多样性指标对气候变化的广泛不同反应。五个指标总体呈现负面影响，预计步甲科、蛀干甲虫和树种多样性将减少超过 33%。六个指标对气候变化呈积极反应，预计膜翅目、软体动物和食蚜蝇科的多样性将增加两倍以上。干扰总体上对所研究的生物多样性指标有益。我们的结果表明，增加干扰频率和强度对生物多样性有积极影响，而增加干扰规模有适度的负面影响。目前在山区研究景观的低至中海拔地区发现了生物多样性的空间热点，但在气候变化条件下会转移到更高海拔区域。我们的结果强调，强化干扰 regime 可能会减轻气候变化对森林生物多样性的一些影响。然而，生物多样性热点的预计转移对静态保护区来说是一个挑战。在这方面，当前和预期未来条件下重叠的热点突出了进行强有力保护管理的优先区域。
