Mäkelä Annikki, Minunno Francesco, Kujala Heini, Kosenius Anna-Kaisa, Heikkinen Risto K, Junttila Virpi, Peltoniemi Mikko, Forsius Martin
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR) & Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Finnish Natural History Museum, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Ambio. 2023 Nov;52(11):1737-1756. doi: 10.1007/s13280-023-01899-0. Epub 2023 Aug 3.
Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.
森林管理方法和采伐强度会影响木材生产、碳固存和生物多样性。我们通过利益相关者分析设计了不同的管理方案，并将其纳入森林生长模拟器PREBAS中。为了分析采伐强度的影响，我们对总采伐量设置了限制：照常经营、低采伐量、高强度采伐和不采伐。我们在芬兰的全覆盖网格上进行模拟，直至2050年。我们的目标是：（1）测试管理方案在预测方面的差异；（2）分析不同采伐水平下潜在的木材生产、碳固存和生物多样性；（3）比较分配这些方案和保护区的不同选项。无论管理措施如何以及严格保护森林的比例有适度变化，采伐水平都是碳储量和通量的关键。相比之下，生物多样性更多地依赖于其他管理变量而非采伐水平，并且相对独立于碳储量和通量。
