Kiessling Wolfgang, Kocsis Ádám T
GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstraße 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany
GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Department of Geography and Geosciences, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstraße 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany.
Biol Lett. 2016 Oct;12(10). doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2015.0813.
Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographical distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.
除了有助于识别通常与灭绝风险相关的物种特征外，化石记录对于评估现存物种的灭绝风险也可能具有直接相关性。当前的地理分布或占有率是近期和过去灭绝风险的有力预测指标，但占有率变化的作用却较少得到广泛评估。在此，我们基于海洋物种的新生代化石记录证明，占有率及其时间轨迹都是风险的重要决定因素。基于已灭绝物种，我们构建了一个关于占有率及其时间变化对灭绝风险的累加和交互作用的模型。我们使用该模型来预测现存物种的灭绝风险。预测结果表明，海洋物种平均面临中度风险。然而，一些物种似乎正处于长期衰退中，可能存在潜在的灭绝风险，而这在当前的风险评估中并未得到考虑。
