为开发空间决策支持系统分析小区域层面的疟疾发病率：以印度卡纳塔克邦卡拉布尔吉为例

Analysing malaria incidence at the small area level for developing a spatial decision support system: A case study in Kalaburagi, Karnataka, India.

作者信息

Shekhar S, Yoo E-H, Ahmed S A, Haining R, Kadannolly S

机构信息

Department of Geography, Central University of Karnataka, India.

Department of Geography, State University of New York, Buffalo, USA.

出版信息

Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2017 Feb;20:9-25. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2016.12.002. Epub 2016 Dec 30.

DOI:10.1016/j.sste.2016.12.002

PMID:28137677

Abstract

Spatial decision support systems have already proved their value in helping to reduce infectious diseases but to be effective they need to be designed to reflect local circumstances and local data availability. We report the first stage of a project to develop a spatial decision support system for infectious diseases for Karnataka State in India. The focus of this paper is on malaria incidence and we draw on small area data on new cases of malaria analysed in two-monthly time intervals over the period February 2012 to January 2016 for Kalaburagi taluk, a small area in Karnataka. We report the results of data mapping and cluster detection (identifying areas of excess risk) including evaluating the temporal persistence of excess risk and the local conditions with which high counts are statistically associated. We comment on how this work might feed into a practical spatial decision support system.

摘要

空间决策支持系统已在帮助减少传染病方面证明了其价值，但要发挥效用，就需要根据当地情况和数据可得性进行设计。我们报告了为印度卡纳塔克邦开发传染病空间决策支持系统项目的第一阶段。本文重点关注疟疾发病率，我们利用了卡纳塔克邦一个小区域卡拉布尔吉乡2012年2月至2016年1月期间按两个月时间间隔分析的疟疾新病例小区域数据。我们报告了数据映射和聚类检测（识别高风险区域）的结果，包括评估高风险的时间持续性以及与高病例数在统计上相关的当地条件。我们评论了这项工作如何能为实用的空间决策支持系统提供信息。