Chandra Nastassya L, Soldan Kate, Dangerfield Ciara, Sile Bersabeh, Duffell Stephen, Talebi Alireza, Choi Yoon H, Hughes Gwenda, Woodhall Sarah C
National Infection Service, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom.
Euro Surveill. 2017 Feb 2;22(5). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.5.30453.
To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15-44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000-2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000-2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15-19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15-24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets.
为了对自2000年以来衣原体筛查在英国产生的影响进行数学建模,需要全面了解衣原体检测情况。2000年至2012年间监测和监督系统不断发展。自2012年以来,全国收集了关于公共资助的衣原体检测和诊断的数据。然而,早期年份存在数据缺口。我们整理了2000年至2012年按性别和年龄组划分的15至44岁人群中衣原体检测和诊断率的现有数据。在数据不可用的情况下,我们应用基于数据和证据的假设来构建合理的最低和最高估计值,并设定不确定性范围。在数据集不太全面的年份(2000年至2008年),估计值之间的范围很大;此后范围变小。2000年,15至19岁女性的估计诊断率为每10万人891至2489例诊断。使用最低或最高估计值,2000年至2012年间所有年龄组的女性和男性的检测和诊断率均有所上升,15至24岁人群的上升幅度最大。我们的数据集可用于对数学模型进行参数化和验证,并作为一个参考数据集,可与衣原体相关并发症的趋势进行比较。我们的分析突出了整合监测和监督数据集的复杂性。