Kuligowski Erica D, Gwynne Steven M V, Kinsey Michael J, Hulse Lynn
National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
National Research Council Canada, Ottawa, Canada.
Fire Technol. 2017 Mar;53(2):649-672. doi: 10.1007/s10694-016-0586-2. Epub 2016 May 24.
Structures are currently designed and constructed in accordance with prescriptive and performance-based (PBD) methodologies to ensure a certain level of occupant safety during fire emergencies. The performance-based approach requires the quantification of both ASET (Available Safe Egress Time) and RSET (Required Safe Egress Time) to determine the degree of safety provided. This article focuses on the RSET side of the equation, for which a fire protection or fire safety engineer would use some type of egress modelling approach to estimate evacuation performance. Often, simple engineering equations are applied to estimate the RSET value. Over time, more sophisticated computational tools have appeared-that go beyond basic flow calculations; e.g. simulating individual agent movement. Irrespective of the approach adopted, appropriate and accurate representation of human behavior in response to fire within these approaches is limited, mainly due to the lack of a comprehensive conceptual model of evacuee decision-making and behavior during fire emergencies. This article initially presents the set of behavioral statements, or mini-theories, currently available from various fire and disaster studies, organized using the overarching theory of decision-making and human behavior in disasters. Once presented, guidance is provided on how these behavioral statements might be incorporated into an evacuation model, in order to better represent human behavior in fire within the safety analysis being performed. The intent here is to improve the accuracy of the results produced by performance-based calculations and analyses.
目前，建筑结构的设计和建造遵循规定性和基于性能的（PBD）方法，以确保在火灾紧急情况下为居住者提供一定程度的安全保障。基于性能的方法要求对可用安全疏散时间（ASET）和所需安全疏散时间（RSET）进行量化，以确定所提供的安全程度。本文重点关注等式中的RSET部分，消防或消防安全工程师会使用某种类型的疏散建模方法来估计疏散性能。通常，会应用简单的工程方程来估计RSET值。随着时间的推移，出现了更复杂的计算工具——这些工具超越了基本的流量计算；例如，模拟个体人员的移动。无论采用何种方法，在这些方法中对火灾情况下人类行为的适当和准确表示都很有限，主要是因为缺乏一个全面的火灾紧急情况下疏散人员决策和行为的概念模型。本文首先介绍了目前从各种火灾和灾害研究中获得的一组行为陈述或微型理论，这些陈述或理论是根据灾害中决策和人类行为的总体理论组织起来的。介绍完这些内容后，将提供有关如何将这些行为陈述纳入疏散模型的指导，以便在正在进行的安全分析中更好地表示火灾中的人类行为。这里的目的是提高基于性能的计算和分析所产生结果的准确性。
