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地球工程对作物生产的潜在负面影响:以印度花生为例的研究

Potential negative consequences of geoengineering on crop production: A study of Indian groundnut.

作者信息

Yang Huiyi, Dobbie Steven, Ramirez-Villegas Julian, Feng Kuishuang, Challinor Andrew J, Chen Bing, Gao Yao, Lee Lindsay, Yin Yan, Sun Laixiang, Watson James, Koehler Ann-Kristin, Fan Tingting, Ghosh Sat

机构信息

CMA Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China; ICAS School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds Leeds UK.

ICAS School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds Leeds UK.

出版信息

Geophys Res Lett. 2016 Nov 28;43(22):11786-11795. doi: 10.1002/2016GL071209. Epub 2016 Nov 19.

Abstract

Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased.

摘要

地球工程已被提议用于稳定全球气温,但其对作物产量和稳定性的影响尚未完全明确。一些案例研究表明某些作物可能会从太阳变暗地球工程中受益,但我们发现地球工程预计会对花生产生不利影响。通过一组作物-气候模型模拟,我们表明,相对于代表性浓度路径4.5(RCP4.5),由于太阳变暗地球工程,印度的花生产量在统计上显著下降,降幅高达20%。不过,令人稍感欣慰的是,在持续进行50年地球工程后,一旦停止干预,作物产量在几年内就会恢复到未进行地球工程时的水平。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e398/5267972/258c74d0bf8d/GRL-43-11786-g001.jpg

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