Economic trade-offs between genetic improvement and longevity in dairy cattle.

Genetic improvement in sires used for artificial insemination (AI) is increasing faster compared with a decade ago. The genetic merit of replacement heifers is also increasing faster and the genetic lag with older cows in the herd increases. This may trigger greater cow culling to capture this genetic improvement. On the other hand, lower culling rates are often viewed favorably because the costs and environmental effects of maintaining herd size are generally lower. Thus, there is an economic trade-off between genetic improvement and longevity in dairy cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate the principles, literature, and magnitude of these trade-offs. Data from the Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding show that the estimated breeding value of the trait productive life has increased for 50 yr but the actual time cows spend in the herd has not increased. The average annual herd cull rate remains at approximately 36% and cow longevity is approximately 59 mo. The annual increase in average estimated breeding value of the economic index lifetime net merit of Holstein sires is accelerating from $40/yr when the sire entered AI around 2002 to $171/yr for sires that entered AI around 2012. The expectation is therefore that heifers born in 2015 are approximately $50 more profitable per lactation than heifers born in 2014. Asset replacement theory shows that assets should be replaced sooner when the challenging asset is technically improved. Few studies have investigated the direct effects of genetic improvement on optimal cull rates. A 35-yr-old study found that the economically optimal cull rates were in the range of 25 to 27%, compared with the lowest possible involuntary cull rate of 20%. Only a small effect was observed of using the best surviving dams to generate the replacement heifer calves. Genetic improvement from sires had little effect on the optimal cull rate. Another study that optimized culling decisions for individual cows also showed that the effect of changes in genetic improvement of milk revenue minus feed cost on herd longevity was relatively small. Reduced involuntary cull rates improved profitability, but also increased optimal voluntary culling. Finally, an economically optimal culling model with prices from 2015 confirmed that optimal annual cull rates were insensitive to heifer prices and therefore insensitive to genetic improvement in heifers. In conclusion, genetic improvement is important but does not warrant short cow longevity. Economic cow longevity continues to depends more on cow depreciation than on accelerated genetic improvements in heifers. This is confirmed by old and new studies.