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运用离散选择实验评估越南红河三角洲地区农民报告猪病的意愿。

Application of discrete choice experiment to assess farmers' willingness to report swine diseases in the Red River Delta region, Vietnam.

作者信息

Pham Hoa T T, Peyre Marisa, Trinh Tuyen Quang, Nguyen Oanh Cong, Vu Ton Dinh, Rukkwamsuk Theera, Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas

机构信息

French Agricultural Research Center for International Development (CIRAD), Van Phuc Diplomatic Compound, 298 Kim Ma, Ba Dinh, Hanoi, Vietnam.

French Agricultural Research Center for International Development (CIRAD), Animal and Integrated Risk Management Research Unit (AGIRs), 34398 Montpellier, France.

出版信息

Prev Vet Med. 2017 Mar 1;138:28-36. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2017.01.002. Epub 2017 Jan 16.

Abstract

A discrete choice experiment (DCE) is carried out to value socio-economic factors influencing the farmer's decision to report swine diseases and to assess the willingness of farmers to report swine diseases. Data were collected between March and July 2015 in two provinces in the Red River Delta, Northern Vietnam, from 196 pig producers by face-to face interview. A conditional logit model is used to measure the relative importance of the socio-economic factors and calculate the expected probability of disease reporting under changes of levels of these factors. Results of the study indicated that the likelihood of compensation and the type of culling implemented (all or only unrecovered pigs) are the two most important factors influencing farmer reporting. Compensation level, movement restriction and delay in compensation payment also have significant impacts on farmer's decision to report animal disease but they are not as important as the above factors. Three different scenarios including changes in six different factors (attributes) are tested to predict probability of animal disease reporting. Under the current situation (uncertainty of being compensated), only 4% of the farmers would report swine disease outbreak to the official surveillance system if the culling policy involves all pigs in affected farms. This number is increased to 26% if culling in affected farms is restricted to unrecovered pigs only. Ensuring certainty of compensation increases reporting probability by up to 50% and 90% if all or only unrecovered pigs are destroyed, respectively. The results of this study are important for improving the performance and sustainability of swine disease surveillance system in Vietnam.

摘要

开展了一项离散选择实验(DCE),以评估影响养殖户报告猪病的社会经济因素,并评估养殖户报告猪病的意愿。2015年3月至7月期间,在越南北部红河三角洲的两个省份,通过面对面访谈收集了196名生猪养殖户的数据。使用条件logit模型来衡量社会经济因素的相对重要性,并计算在这些因素水平变化情况下报告疾病的预期概率。研究结果表明,补偿可能性和实施的扑杀类型(全部或仅扑杀未康复猪)是影响养殖户报告的两个最重要因素。补偿水平、移动限制和补偿支付延迟对养殖户报告动物疾病的决定也有显著影响,但不如上述因素重要。测试了包括六个不同因素(属性)变化的三种不同情景,以预测动物疾病报告的概率。在当前情况下(获得补偿存在不确定性),如果扑杀政策涉及受影响养殖场的所有猪,只有4%的养殖户会向官方监测系统报告猪病疫情。如果受影响养殖场的扑杀仅限于未康复猪,这一数字将增至26%。如果分别对所有猪或仅对未康复猪进行扑杀,确保补偿确定性可将报告概率分别提高至多50%和90%。本研究结果对于提高越南猪病监测系统的绩效和可持续性具有重要意义。

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