Clark Jessica, Garbutt Jennie S, McNally Luke, Little Tom J
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, The University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Kings Buildings, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, Scotland.
Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, The University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Laboratories, Kings Buildings, Charlotte Auerbach Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, Scotland.
Ecol Lett. 2017 Apr;20(4):445-451. doi: 10.1111/ele.12745. Epub 2017 Mar 7.
Fundamental ecological processes, such as extrinsic mortality, determine population age structure. This influences disease spread when individuals of different ages differ in susceptibility or when maternal age determines offspring susceptibility. We show that Daphnia magna offspring born to young mothers are more susceptible than those born to older mothers, and consider this alongside previous observations that susceptibility declines with age in this system. We used a susceptible-infected compartmental model to investigate how age-specific susceptibility and maternal age effects on offspring susceptibility interact with demographic factors affecting disease spread. Our results show a scenario where an increase in extrinsic mortality drives an increase in transmission potential. Thus, we identify a realistic context in which age effects and maternal effects produce conditions favouring disease transmission.
诸如外在死亡率等基本生态过程决定了种群年龄结构。当不同年龄的个体易感性不同,或者母体年龄决定后代易感性时,这会影响疾病传播。我们发现,年轻母体所生的大型溞后代比年长母体所生的后代更易感染,并结合该系统中易感性随年龄增长而下降的先前观察结果进行考虑。我们使用了一个易感-感染分区模型来研究特定年龄的易感性和母体年龄对后代易感性的影响如何与影响疾病传播的人口统计学因素相互作用。我们的结果显示了一种情况,即外在死亡率的增加会导致传播潜力的增加。因此,我们确定了一个现实背景,其中年龄效应和母体效应产生了有利于疾病传播的条件。