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传播动力学:关键问题与挑战

Transmission dynamics: critical questions and challenges.

作者信息

Antonovics Janis

机构信息

Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA

出版信息

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2017 May 5;372(1719). doi: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0087.

Abstract

This article overviews the dynamics of disease transmission in one-host-one-parasite systems. Transmission is the result of interacting host and pathogen processes, encapsulated with the environment in a 'transmission triangle'. Multiple transmission modes and their epidemiological consequences are often not understood because the direct measurement of transmission is difficult. However, its different components can be analysed using nonlinear transmission functions, contact matrices and networks. A particular challenge is to develop such functions for spatially extended systems. This is illustrated for vector transmission where a 'perception kernel' approach is developed that incorporates vector behaviour in response to host spacing. A major challenge is understanding the relative merits of the large number of approaches to quantifying transmission. The evolution of transmission mode itself has been a rather neglected topic, but is important in the context of understanding disease emergence and genetic variation in pathogens. Disease impacts many biological processes such as community stability, the evolution of sex and speciation, yet the importance of different transmission modes in these processes is not understood. Broader approaches and ideas to disease transmission are important in the public health realm for combating newly emerging infections.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

摘要

本文概述了单宿主-单寄生虫系统中疾病传播的动态过程。传播是宿主与病原体相互作用过程的结果,在一个“传播三角”中与环境相互关联。由于传播的直接测量较为困难,多种传播模式及其流行病学后果常常不为人所理解。然而,可以使用非线性传播函数、接触矩阵和网络来分析其不同组成部分。一个特殊的挑战是为空间扩展系统开发此类函数。本文以媒介传播为例进行说明,其中开发了一种“感知核”方法,该方法纳入了媒介对宿主间距的行为反应。一个主要挑战是理解大量量化传播方法的相对优点。传播模式本身的演变一直是一个相当被忽视的主题,但在理解疾病出现和病原体遗传变异方面很重要。疾病会影响许多生物过程,如群落稳定性、性别进化和物种形成,但不同传播模式在这些过程中的重要性尚不清楚。更广泛的疾病传播方法和理念在公共卫生领域对于抗击新出现的感染至关重要。本文是主题为“打开黑匣子:重新审视寄生虫传播的生态学和进化”的特刊的一部分。

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