Manglos-Weber Nicolette D, Weinreb Alexander A
Kansas State University.
The University of Texas at Austin.
J Marriage Fam. 2017 Apr;79(2):372-389. doi: 10.1111/jomf.12348. Epub 2016 Aug 31.
Goode's foundational work on the fertility transition identified own-choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today's transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode's theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own-choice and arranged marriage; and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move towards own-choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own-choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects.
古德关于生育转变的基础性研究将自主选择婚姻视为推动生育率下降的一个因素，这是与婚姻和生育相关的选择范围不断扩大的一部分。然而，在当今转型社会中，支持这种联系的研究稀缺且有些矛盾，而且尚不清楚其他婚姻传统，如同族通婚，如何塑造这种关系。本研究利用来自土耳其的综合人口与健康调查数据评估古德的理论联系，比较了四种婚姻类型中生育的子女数量、避孕措施的使用以及生育间隔：自主选择婚姻和包办婚姻；与表亲结婚和与非亲属配偶结婚。结果在很大程度上与以下观点一致，即向自主选择婚姻的转变反映了选择范围的扩大，这也导致了生育率下降。然而，结果还表明，像与表亲的自主选择婚姻这样的混合模式会缓和这些影响。
