Estimating the reliability of evolutionary trees.

Six protein sequences from the same 11 mammalian taxa were used to estimate the accuracy and reliability of phylogenetic trees using real, rather than simulated, data. A tree comparison metric was used to measure the increase in similarity of minimal trees as larger, randomly selected subsets of nucleotide positions were taken. The ratio of the observed to the expected number of incompatibilities for each nucleotide position (character) is a good predictor of the number of changes required at that position on the minimal (most-parsimonious) tree. This allows a higher weighting of nucleotide positions that have changed more slowly and should result in the minimal length tree converging to the correct tree as more sequences are obtained. An estimate was made of the smallest subset of trees that need to be considered to include the actual historical tree for a given set of data. It was concluded that it is possible to give a reasonable estimate of the reliability of the final tree, at least when several sequences are combined. With the present data, resolving the rodent-primate-lagomorph (rabbit) trichotomy is the least certain aspect of the final tree, followed then by establishing the position of dog. In our opinion, it is unreasonable to publish an evolutionary tree derived from sequence data without giving an idea of the reliability of the tree.