Division of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Julius Centre for Public Health Sciences and Primary Care, Utrecht University Medical Centre, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2018 Mar;28(2):173-181. doi: 10.1038/jes.2017.3. Epub 2017 Mar 22.
We developed a spatio-temporal model for the Netherlands to estimate environmental exposure to individual agricultural pesticides at the residential address for application in a national case-control study on Parkinson's disease (PD). Data on agricultural land use and pesticide use were combined to estimate environmental exposure to pesticides for the period 1961 onwards. Distance categories of 0-50 m, >50-100 m, >100-500 m and >500-1000 m around residences were considered. For illustration purposes, exposure was estimated for the control population (n=607) in the PD case-control study. In a small validation effort, model estimates were compared with pesticide measurements in air and precipitation collected at 17 stations in 2000-2001. Estimated exposure prevalence was higher for pesticides used on commonly cultivated (rotating) crops than for pesticides used on fruit and bulbs only. Prevalence increased with increasing distance considered. Moderate-to-high correlations were observed between model estimates (>100-500 m and >500-1000 m) and environmental pesticide concentrations measured in 2000-2001. Environmental exposure to individual pesticides can be estimated using relevant spatial and temporal data sets on agricultural land use and pesticide use. Our approach seems to result in accurate estimates of average environmental exposure, although it remains to be investigated to what extent this reflect personal exposure to agricultural pesticides.
我们为荷兰开发了一个时空模型，以估计个人在居住地址接触到的农业农药的环境暴露程度，用于在全国帕金森病（PD）病例对照研究中应用。农业土地利用和农药使用数据相结合，以估计自 1961 年以来的农药环境暴露情况。考虑了距离住宅 0-50m、>50-100m、>100-500m 和 >500-1000m 的距离类别。为了说明目的，估计了 PD 病例对照研究中对照人群（n=607）的暴露情况。在一项小型验证工作中，将模型估计值与 2000-2001 年在 17 个站点收集的空气和降水中的农药测量值进行了比较。在通常种植（轮作）作物上使用的农药的估计暴露率高于仅在水果和鳞茎上使用的农药。考虑的距离越大，暴露率越高。模型估计值（>100-500m 和 >500-1000m）与 2000-2001 年测量的环境农药浓度之间观察到了中度至高度相关性。可以使用关于农业土地利用和农药使用的相关时空数据集来估计个人对个别农药的环境暴露情况。我们的方法似乎可以准确估计平均环境暴露情况，尽管仍需要研究在多大程度上反映了个人对农业农药的暴露情况。
