Bardach Ariel E, Caporale Joaquín E, Alcaraz Andrea, Augustovski Federico, Huayanay-Falconí Leandro, Loza-Munarriz Cesar, Hernández-Vásquez Akram, Pichon-Riviere Andrés
Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria (IECS). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica. 2016 Oct-Dec;33(4):651-661. doi: 10.17843/rpmesp.2016.334.2548.
. To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru.
MATERIALS AND METHODS.: A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated.
. A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues.
. Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.
计算与吸烟相关疾病的负担，并评估秘鲁提高烟草税导致香烟价格上涨可能产生的经济和健康影响。
使用微观模拟模型来估计吸烟对死亡率、生活质量以及与心脏和脑血管疾病、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肺炎、肺癌和其他九种癌症相关的成本的影响。评估了三种涉及提高税收的情景。
在秘鲁，每年共有16719例死亡、6926例癌症诊断、7936例中风以及7548例因心血管疾病住院可归因于吸烟。同样，每年因过早死亡和残疾损失396069个生命年，治疗与吸烟相关健康问题的成本升至25亿索尔（2015年秘鲁新索尔）。目前，烟草税仅覆盖这笔费用的9.1%。如果在未来10年香烟价格上涨50%，可预防13391例死亡、6210例心血管事件和5361例新癌症，这意味着在节省医疗成本和增加税收方面可带来31.45亿（秘鲁新索尔）的经济效益。
在秘鲁，与吸烟相关的疾病负担和卫生系统成本非常高。提高香烟税可能会给该国带来巨大的健康和经济效益。
