Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy (IECS), Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Centre for Health Economics (CHE), University of York, York, UK.
Health Econ. 2023 Nov;32(11):2655-2672. doi: 10.1002/hec.4741. Epub 2023 Jul 31.
Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.
在中低收入国家，增加烟草税是减少消费的最具成本效益的措施，但仍未得到充分利用。本研究估算了吸烟对阿根廷的健康和经济负担，并预测了提高烟草税的好处，同时考虑了非法贸易的潜在影响。本研究使用概率马尔可夫微模拟模型来量化与吸烟相关的死亡、健康事件和社会成本。该模型还估计了通过税收提高香烟价格对健康和经济的影响。每年，吸烟在阿根廷导致 45000 人死亡和 221000 人健康事件，直接医疗费用为 2.782 亿美元，劳动力生产力损失成本为 1.47 亿美元，非正式护理成本为 1.069 亿美元——占国内生产总值的 1.2%。即使在考虑烟草产品非法贸易的情况下，通过税收将香烟价格提高 50%也能在十年内累计产生 8.292 亿美元的总经济效益。因此，提高烟草税可以显著减轻阿根廷吸烟对健康和经济的负担，同时增加财政收入。
