Zhao M J, Geng X Y, Cui L L, Zhou J W, Zhang J
Jinan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250021, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017 Mar 10;38(3):374-377. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.03.020.
To estimate the influence of the ambient PM(l0) and PM(2.5) pollution on the hospital outpatient department visit due to respiratory diseases in local residents in Jinan quantitatively. Time serial analysis using generalized addictive model (GAM) was conducted. After controlling the confounding factors, such as long term trend, weekly pattern and meteorological factors, considering lag effect and the influence of other air pollutants, the excess relative risks of daily hospital visits associated with increased ambient PM(10) and PM(2.5) levels were estimated by fitting a Poisson regression model. A 10 μg/m(3) increase of PM(10) and PM(2.5) levels was associated with an increase of 0.36%(95: 0.30%-0.43%) and 0.50%(95: 0.30%-0.70%) respectively for hospital visits due to respiratory diseases. Lag effect of 6 days was strongest, the excess relative risks were 0.65% (95: 0.58% -0.71% ) and 0.54% (95: 0.42%-0.67%) respectively. When NO(2) concentration was introduced, the daily hospital visits due to respiratory disease increased by 0.83% as a 10 μg/m(3) increase of PM(10) concentration (95: 0.76%-0.91%). The ambient PM(l0) and PM(2.5) pollution was positively associated with daily hospital visits due to respiratory disease in Jinan, and ambient NO(2) concentration would have the synergistic effect.
为定量评估济南市环境中细颗粒物（PM10）和可入肺颗粒物（PM2.5）污染对当地居民因呼吸系统疾病到医院门诊就诊的影响。采用广义相加模型（GAM）进行时间序列分析。在控制了长期趋势、每周模式和气象因素等混杂因素后，考虑滞后效应和其他空气污染物的影响，通过拟合泊松回归模型估计了与环境中PM10和PM2.5水平升高相关的每日医院就诊超额相对风险。PM10和PM2.5水平每升高10μg/m³，因呼吸系统疾病导致的医院就诊分别增加0.36%（95%可信区间：0.30%-0.43%）和0.50%（95%可信区间：0.30%-0.70%）。6天的滞后效应最强，超额相对风险分别为0.65%（95%可信区间：0.58%-0.71%）和0.54%（95%可信区间：0.42%-0.67%）。当引入二氧化氮（NO2）浓度时，随着PM10浓度每升高10μg/m³，因呼吸系统疾病导致的每日医院就诊增加0.83%（95%可信区间：0.76%-0.91%）。济南市环境中PM10和PM2.5污染与因呼吸系统疾病导致的每日医院就诊呈正相关，且环境中NO2浓度具有协同作用。
