Laboratorio de Ecología de Ambientes Fragmentados, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Laboratorio de Ecología de Ecosistemas, Departamento de Recursos Naturales Renovables, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Int J Epidemiol. 2017 Jun 1;46(3):966-975. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyw366.
Zika virus is an emerging Flaviviridae virus, which has spread rapidly in the last few years. It has raised concern because it has been associated with fetus microcephaly when pregnant women are infected. The main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti , distributed in tropical areas.
Niche modelling techniques were used to estimate the potential distribution area of A. aegypti. This was overlapped with human population density, determining areas of potential transmission risk worldwide. Afterwards, we quantified the population at risk according to risk level.
The vector transmission risk is distributed mainly in Asia and Oceania on the shores of the Indian Ocean. In America, the risk concentrates in the Atlantic coast of South America and in the Caribbean Sea shores in Central and North America. In Africa, the major risk is concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Central and South Africa. The world population under high and very high risk levels includes 2.261 billion people.
These results illustrate Zika virus risk at the global level and provide maps to target the prevention and control measures especially in areas with higher risk, in countries with less sanitation and poorer resources. Many countries without previous vector reports could become active transmission zones in the future, so vector surveillance should be implemented or reinforced in these areas.
寨卡病毒是一种新兴的黄病毒，在过去几年中迅速传播。它引起了人们的关注，因为孕妇感染寨卡病毒后，会导致胎儿小头畸形。主要传播媒介是分布在热带地区的埃及伊蚊。
利用生态位模型技术来估计埃及伊蚊的潜在分布区域。将其与人类人口密度进行叠加，确定全球潜在传播风险区域。然后，根据风险级别量化有风险的人群。
该媒介的传播风险主要分布在印度洋沿岸的亚洲和大洋洲。在美洲，风险集中在南美洲大西洋沿岸和中美洲及北美洲加勒比海沿岸。在非洲，主要风险集中在中非和南非的太平洋和大西洋沿岸。处于高风险和极高风险级别的世界人口达 22.61 亿人。
这些结果说明了寨卡病毒在全球范围内的风险，并提供了地图，以便在高风险地区有针对性地采取预防和控制措施，特别是在卫生条件较差和资源匮乏的国家。许多以前没有报告过该媒介的国家未来可能成为活跃的传播区，因此应在这些地区实施或加强媒介监测。
