Alaniz Alberto J, Bacigalupo Antonella, Cattan Pedro E
Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Laboratorio de Ecología de Ambientes Fragmentados, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Laboratorio de Ecología, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Rev Chilena Infectol. 2017 Dec;34(6):553-556. doi: 10.4067/S0716-10182017000600553.
The Zika virus has raised world alarm in recent years, representing a major public health problem. In this study we evaluated the potential risk of exposure to Zika virus in Chile, associated with the probability of establishment of the vector Aedes aegypti in the country. Niche modelling techniques were used to project the bioclimatic requirements of the vector (global niches), identifying zones of high suitability for the species within the country. Then, the potential distribution of the vector in Chile was overlapped with the human population density, estimating the risk associated to the potential co-occurrence of both in a spatially explicit manner. We identified bioclimatic suitability for A. aegypti in continental Chile, from the northern tropical area to temperate regions, mainly in coastal zones. The exposed population could reach 1.8 million people, with 1.3 million in a medium level of potential risk and 21,000 in a high level. These results support that there is a significant probability of success for the Zika virus main vector to colonize continental Chile in case of an introduction. Therefore, prevention, monitoring, and control play an important role in avoiding the arrival of this vector to our country.
寨卡病毒近年来已引起全球警觉，成为一个重大的公共卫生问题。在本研究中，我们评估了智利接触寨卡病毒的潜在风险，这与该国病媒埃及伊蚊定殖的可能性相关。利用生态位建模技术预测病媒的生物气候需求（全球生态位），确定该国境内该物种高度适宜的区域。然后，将智利病媒的潜在分布与人口密度叠加，以空间明确的方式估计两者潜在共存相关的风险。我们确定了埃及伊蚊在智利大陆从北部热带地区到温带地区的生物气候适宜性，主要在沿海地带。可能受影响的人口可达180万，其中130万处于中等潜在风险水平，2.1万处于高风险水平。这些结果表明，如果引入寨卡病毒，其主要病媒在智利大陆定殖成功的可能性很大。因此，预防、监测和控制对于防止该病媒进入我国起着重要作用。
