Wu Grace C, Deshmukh Ranjit, Ndhlukula Kudakwashe, Radojicic Tijana, Reilly-Moman Jessica, Phadke Amol, Kammen Daniel M, Callaway Duncan S
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720;
International Energy Studies Group, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Apr 11;114(15):E3004-E3012. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1611845114. Epub 2017 Mar 27.
Recent forecasts suggest that African countries must triple their current electricity generation by 2030. Our multicriteria assessment of wind and solar potential for large regions of Africa shows how economically competitive and low-environmental-impact renewable resources can significantly contribute to meeting this demand. We created the Multicriteria Analysis for Planning Renewable Energy (MapRE) framework to map and characterize solar and wind energy zones in 21 countries in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and find that potential is several times greater than demand in many countries. Significant fractions of demand can be quickly served with "no-regrets" options-or zones that are low-cost, low-environmental impact, and highly accessible. Because no-regrets options are spatially heterogeneous, international interconnections are necessary to help achieve low-carbon development for the region as a whole, and interconnections that support the best renewable options may differ from those planned for hydropower expansion. Additionally, interconnections and selecting wind sites to match demand reduce the need for SAPP-wide conventional generation capacity by 9.5% in a high-wind scenario, resulting in a 6-20% cost savings, depending on the avoided conventional technology. Strategic selection of low-impact and accessible zones is more cost effective with interconnections compared with solutions without interconnections. Overall results are robust to multiple load growth scenarios. Together, results show that multicriteria site selection and deliberate planning of interconnections may significantly increase the economic and environmental competitiveness of renewable alternatives relative to conventional generation.
近期预测表明，到2030年非洲国家的当前发电量必须增至三倍。我们对非洲广大地区的风能和太阳能潜力进行的多标准评估显示，具有经济竞争力且环境影响低的可再生资源能为满足这一需求做出重大贡献。我们创建了规划可再生能源多标准分析（MapRE）框架，以绘制并描述南部非洲电力池（SAPP）和东部非洲电力池（EAPP）中21个国家的太阳能和风能区域，结果发现许多国家的潜力比需求大几倍。很大一部分需求可以通过“无悔”选项——即低成本、低环境影响且易于开发的区域——迅速得到满足。由于无悔选项在空间上是异质的，国际互联对于帮助整个地区实现低碳发展至关重要，而且支持最佳可再生选项的互联可能与为水电扩张规划的互联不同。此外，在高风速情景下，互联和选择与需求匹配的风电场址可使SAPP范围内的常规发电容量需求减少9.5%，从而节省6%至20%的成本，具体取决于所避免的常规技术。与无互联的解决方案相比，通过互联对低影响且易于开发的区域进行战略选择更具成本效益。总体结果对于多种负荷增长情景都很稳健。综合来看，结果表明多标准选址和精心规划互联可能会显著提高可再生能源相对于常规发电的经济和环境竞争力。
