Dalin Carole, Wada Yoshihide, Kastner Thomas, Puma Michael J
Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Nature. 2017 Mar 29;543(7647):700-704. doi: 10.1038/nature21403.
Recent hydrological modelling and Earth observations have located and quantified alarming rates of groundwater depletion worldwide. This depletion is primarily due to water withdrawals for irrigation, but its connection with the main driver of irrigation, global food consumption, has not yet been explored. Here we show that approximately eleven per cent of non-renewable groundwater use for irrigation is embedded in international food trade, of which two-thirds are exported by Pakistan, the USA and India alone. Our quantification of groundwater depletion embedded in the world's food trade is based on a combination of global, crop-specific estimates of non-renewable groundwater abstraction and international food trade data. A vast majority of the world's population lives in countries sourcing nearly all their staple crop imports from partners who deplete groundwater to produce these crops, highlighting risks for global food and water security. Some countries, such as the USA, Mexico, Iran and China, are particularly exposed to these risks because they both produce and import food irrigated from rapidly depleting aquifers. Our results could help to improve the sustainability of global food production and groundwater resource management by identifying priority regions and agricultural products at risk as well as the end consumers of these products.
近期的水文模型和地球观测已经确定并量化了全球令人担忧的地下水消耗速度。这种消耗主要是由于灌溉用水的抽取,但它与灌溉的主要驱动力——全球粮食消费之间的联系尚未得到探讨。我们发现,约11%的不可再生灌溉地下水用于国际粮食贸易,其中仅巴基斯坦、美国和印度三国就出口了三分之二。我们对世界粮食贸易中隐含的地下水消耗的量化,是基于全球特定作物的不可再生地下水抽取估计与国际粮食贸易数据的结合。世界上绝大多数人口所在的国家,几乎所有主要作物进口都来自那些抽取地下水来生产这些作物的伙伴国家,这凸显了全球粮食和水资源安全面临的风险。一些国家,如美国、墨西哥、伊朗和中国,尤其容易受到这些风险的影响,因为它们既生产又进口来自快速枯竭含水层灌溉的粮食。我们的研究结果有助于通过确定面临风险的优先地区、农产品以及这些产品的最终消费者,来提高全球粮食生产和地下水资源管理的可持续性。