Shi Ying, Zhao Xu, Tillotson Martin R, Zhang Xinxin, Zhong Rui, Zhong Honglin
Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China.
School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT Leeds, UK.
iScience. 2025 Jun 13;28(7):112896. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2025.112896. eCollection 2025 Jul 18.
Global water savings can be achieved by trading crops from countries with higher to lower water productivity. However, strengthening such water-saving trade links could intensify global water stress if exports come from water-stressed countries to less stressed ones. Here, we explore whether international crop trade can alleviate global water stress using a virtual scarce water saving/loss indicator and refined trade matrices for 109 crops across 150 countries. We further assess how differences in water productivity and stress between trade partners mitigate global water stress by categorizing different types of crop trade relationships. Our results indicate that while international crop trade generally helps mitigate global water stress, over half of the trade links still contribute to increased water stress. Scenario analysis suggests that enhancing crop water productivity among exporters involved in virtual scarce water loss trade links could convert up to 53% of these loss links into saving links.
通过交易水生产率从高到低的国家的作物，可以实现全球水资源节约。然而，如果出口来自水资源紧张的国家到压力较小的国家，加强这种节水贸易联系可能会加剧全球水资源压力。在此，我们使用虚拟稀缺水节约/损失指标和150个国家109种作物的细化贸易矩阵，探讨国际作物贸易是否能够缓解全球水资源压力。我们进一步通过对不同类型的作物贸易关系进行分类，评估贸易伙伴之间水生产率和压力的差异如何缓解全球水资源压力。我们的结果表明，虽然国际作物贸易总体上有助于缓解全球水资源压力，但仍有超过一半的贸易联系会导致水资源压力增加。情景分析表明，提高参与虚拟稀缺水损失贸易联系的出口国的作物水生产率，最多可将这些损失联系中的53%转化为节约联系。
