Rosa Lorenzo, Sangiorgio Matteo
Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA, USA.
Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 30;16(1):1192. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56517-2.
Understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies. We quantify "water gaps", or unsustainable water use - the shortfall where water demand exceeds supply, resulting in scarcity. We quantify baseline and future water gaps using a multi-model analysis that incorporates two plausible future warming scenarios. The baseline global water gap stands at 457.9 km/yr, with projections indicating an increase of 26.5 km/yr (+5.8%) and 67.4 km/yr (+14.7%) under 1.5 °C and 3 °C warming scenarios, respectively. These projections highlight the uneven impact of warming levels on water gaps, emphasizing the need for continued climate change mitigation to alleviate stress on water resources. Our results also underscore the unequal adaptation needs across countries and basins, influenced by varying warming scenarios, with important regional differences and model variability complicating future projections. Robust water management strategies are needed to tackle the escalating water scarcity caused by global warming.
了解气候变化对水资源的影响对于制定有效的适应策略至关重要。我们对“水缺口”或不可持续的用水情况进行量化，即水需求超过供应导致短缺的情况。我们使用多模型分析来量化基线和未来的水缺口，该分析纳入了两种合理的未来变暖情景。全球基线水缺口为每年457.9立方千米，预测表明在1.5°C和3°C变暖情景下，分别增加26.5立方千米/年（+5.8%）和67.4立方千米/年（+14.7%）。这些预测突出了变暖水平对水缺口的不均衡影响，强调了持续缓解气候变化以减轻水资源压力的必要性。我们的结果还强调了各国和各流域不同的适应需求，这些需求受不同变暖情景的影响，重要的区域差异和模型变异性使未来预测变得复杂。需要强有力的水资源管理策略来应对全球变暖导致的日益严重的水资源短缺问题。
