Hemenway David, Azrael Deborah, Miller Matthew
Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, 360 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, 02115, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2017 Dec;4(1):11. doi: 10.1186/s40621-017-0109-8. Epub 2017 Apr 10.
Gun theft is an important source of guns used by criminals. Yet no empirical work has focused on the characteristics of gun owners that distinguish those who have had their guns stolen from those who have not. In this study, we examine the demographics and behavioral characteristics of gun owners who report having had a gun stolen.
Data come from a nationally representative probability-based online survey conducted in April 2015, with a linked follow-up survey in November 2015 that asked gun owners about any theft of their guns in the past 5 years.
Of 1,604 gun-owning respondents, 2.4% (95% CI 1.6,3.6) reported that one or more guns had been stolen, with a mean number of guns stolen per theft of 1.5 (95% CI 1.0,2.0]. Risk factors for having a gun stolen were owning 6 or more guns, owning guns for protection, carrying a gun in the past month, storing guns unsafely, and living in the South region of the United States. The South accounts for 37% of US households, 43% of gun owners, and two-thirds of all gun thefts.
We estimate that there are approximately 250,000 gun theft incidents per year, with about 380,000 guns stolen. We find that certain types of gun owners-who own many guns, who carry guns, and who do not store guns safely-are at higher risk to have their guns stolen. Tracing data show that states in the South are exporters of crime guns used in other states. Our survey results find that the majority of guns stolen in the US come from the South.
枪支盗窃是罪犯所用枪支的一个重要来源。然而，尚无实证研究聚焦于区分枪支被盗者与未被盗者的枪支拥有者特征。在本研究中，我们考察了报告称枪支被盗的枪支拥有者的人口统计学和行为特征。
数据来自2015年4月进行的一项具有全国代表性的基于概率的在线调查，以及2015年11月进行的一项后续关联调查，该后续调查询问枪支拥有者在过去5年里其枪支是否被盗。
在1604名拥有枪支的受访者中，2.4%（95%置信区间1.6, 3.6）报告称一把或多把枪支被盗，每次盗窃被盗枪支的平均数量为1.5把（95%置信区间1.0, 2.0）。枪支被盗的风险因素包括拥有6把或更多枪支、为保护自己而拥有枪支、在过去一个月内携带枪支、不安全地存放枪支以及居住在美国南部地区。南部地区占美国家庭的37%、枪支拥有者的43%，且占所有枪支盗窃案的三分之二。
我们估计每年约有25万起枪支盗窃事件，约38万支枪支被盗。我们发现某些类型的枪支拥有者——拥有许多枪支、携带枪支且不安全存放枪支的人——枪支被盗风险更高。追踪数据显示，南部各州是其他州所用犯罪枪支的输出地。我们的调查结果发现，美国被盗的大多数枪支来自南部。
