School of Medicine and.
Department of Economics, School of Liberal Arts, Indiana University, Indianapolis, Indiana.
Pediatrics. 2020 Jan;145(1). doi: 10.1542/peds.2019-1071. Epub 2019 Dec 2.
Despite being unable to purchase firearms directly, many adolescents have access to guns, leading to increased risk of injury and death. We sought to determine if the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) changed adolescents' gun-carrying behavior.
We performed a repeated cross-sectional study using National Youth Risk Behavior Survey data from years 1993 to 2017. We used a survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression model to determine if the NICS had an effect on adolescent gun carrying, controlling for state respondent characteristics, state laws, state characteristics, the interaction between the NICS and state gun laws, and time.
On average, 5.8% of the cohort reported carrying a gun. Approximately 17% of respondents who carried guns were from states with a universal background check (U/BC) provision at the point of sale, whereas 83% were from states that did not have such laws ( < .001). The model indicated that the NICS together with U/BCs significantly reduced gun carrying by 25% (adjusted relative risk = 0.75 [95% confidence interval: 0.566-0.995]; = .046), whereas the NICS independently did not ( = .516).
Adolescents in states that require U/BCs on all prospective gun buyers are less likely to carry guns compared with those in states that only require background checks on sales through federally licensed firearms dealers. The NICS was only effective in reducing adolescent gun carrying in the presence of state laws requiring U/BCs on all prospective gun buyers. However, state U/BC laws had no effect on adolescent gun carrying until after the NICS was implemented.
尽管青少年无法直接购买枪支，但他们仍能接触到枪支，导致受伤和死亡的风险增加。我们试图确定国家即时犯罪背景调查系统（NICS）是否改变了青少年携带枪支的行为。
我们使用 1993 年至 2017 年全国青少年风险行为调查数据进行了一项重复的横断面研究。我们使用经过调查加权的多变量逻辑回归模型来确定 NICS 是否对青少年携带枪支产生影响，控制了州受访者特征、州法律、州特征、NICS 与州枪支法律之间的相互作用以及时间。
平均而言，该队列中有 5.8%的人报告携带枪支。大约有 17%的携带枪支的受访者来自实施销售点普遍背景调查（U/BC）规定的州，而 83%的受访者来自没有此类法律的州（<0.001）。该模型表明，NICS 与 U/BC 一起显著降低了 25%的枪支携带率（调整后的相对风险=0.75[95%置信区间：0.566-0.995]；=0.046），而 NICS 本身并没有（=0.516）。
与仅要求对通过联邦许可的枪支经销商销售进行背景调查的州相比，在要求对所有潜在枪支购买者进行 U/BC 的州，青少年携带枪支的可能性较低。只有在州法律要求对所有潜在枪支购买者进行 U/BC 的情况下，NICS 才能有效降低青少年携带枪支的风险。然而，在 NICS 实施之前，州 U/BC 法律对青少年携带枪支没有影响。
