Yang Tse-Chuan, Jensen Leif
Assistant Professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology, Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, University at Albany, State University of New York,
Distinguished Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sociology, and Education, Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, Address: 110A Armsby, University Park, PA 16802.
Popul Environ. 2017 Mar;38(3):261-285. doi: 10.1007/s11111-016-0262-y. Epub 2016 Sep 17.
Previous research on climatic conditions and human mortality in the United States has three gaps: largely ignoring social conditions, lack of nationwide focus, and overlooking potential spatial variations. Our goal is to understand whether climatic conditions contribute to mortality after considering social conditions and to investigate whether spatial non-stationarity exists in these factors. Applying geographically weighted regression to a unique nationwide county-level dataset, we found that (1) net of other factors, average July temperatures are positively (detrimentally) associated with mortality while January temperatures mainly have a curvilinear relationship, (2) the mortality-climatic condition associations are spatially non-stationary, (3) the relationships between social conditions (e.g., social capital) and mortality are stable geographically, and (4) without a spatial approach to understanding the environment-mortality relationship, important spatial variations are overlooked. Our findings suggest that a universal approach to coping with the relationships between rapid climate changes and health may not be appropriate and effective.
很大程度上忽视了社会状况、缺乏全国范围的关注以及忽略了潜在的空间差异。我们的目标是了解在考虑社会状况后气候条件是否对死亡率有影响，并调查这些因素中是否存在空间非平稳性。将地理加权回归应用于一个独特的全国县级数据集后，我们发现：（1）在其他因素不变的情况下，7月平均气温与死亡率呈正相关（有害），而1月气温主要呈曲线关系；（2）死亡率与气候条件的关联在空间上是非平稳的；（3）社会状况（如社会资本）与死亡率之间的关系在地理上是稳定的；（4）如果没有空间方法来理解环境与死亡率的关系，重要的空间差异就会被忽略。我们的研究结果表明，应对快速气候变化与健康之间关系的通用方法可能并不合适且有效。
