Key Lab on Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences , No. 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang 110016, China.
School of Environmental Science and Engineering and ∥China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University , No. 800 Dongchuan Road, Minhang, Shanghai 200240, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2017 May 2;51(9):5035-5042. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.7b00026. Epub 2017 Apr 18.
PM pollution-related diseases cause additional medical expenses and work time loss, leading to macroeconomic impact in high PM concentration areas. Previous economic impact assessments of air pollution focused on benefits from environmental regulations while ignoring climate policies. In this study, we examine the health and economic impacts from PM pollution under various air pollution control strategies and climate policies scenarios in the megacity of Shanghai. The estimation adopts an integrated model combining a Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, exposure-response functions (ERFs), and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that without control measures, Shanghai's mortality caused by PM pollution are estimated to be 192 400 cases in 2030 and the work time loss to be 72.1 h/cap annually. The corresponding GDP values and welfare losses would be approximately 2.26% and 3.14%, respectively. With an estimated control cost of 0.76% of local GDP, Shanghai would gain approximately 1.01% of local GDP through local air pollution control measures and climate policies. Furthermore, the application of multiregional integrated control strategies in neighboring provinces would be the most effective in reducing PM concentration in Shanghai, leading to only 0.34% of GDP loss. At the sectoral level, labor-intensive sectors suffer more output loss from PM pollution. Sectors with the highest control costs include power generation, iron and steel, and transport. The results indicate that the combination of multiregional integrated air pollution control strategies and climate policies would be cost-beneficial for Shanghai.
PM 污染相关疾病导致额外的医疗费用和工作时间损失，给 PM 浓度高的地区带来宏观经济影响。以前的空气污染经济影响评估侧重于环境法规的效益，而忽略了气候政策。在这项研究中，我们考察了在上海市各种空气污染控制策略和气候政策情景下，PM 污染对健康和经济的影响。该评估采用了一个综合模型，该模型结合了温室气体和空气污染相互作用与协同（GAINS）模型、暴露反应函数（ERFs）和可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型。结果表明，如果没有控制措施，到 2030 年，上海因 PM 污染导致的死亡人数预计将达到 192400 例，每年的工作时间损失将达到 72.1 小时/人。相应的 GDP 值和福利损失将分别约为 2.26%和 3.14%。如果以当地 GDP 的 0.76%作为估计的控制成本，上海将通过当地的空气污染控制措施和气候政策获得约 1.01%的当地 GDP。此外，在邻近省份实施多区域综合控制策略，将是降低上海 PM 浓度最有效的方法，只会导致 GDP 损失 0.34%。在部门层面上，劳动密集型部门因 PM 污染而遭受更多的产出损失。控制成本最高的部门包括发电、钢铁和运输。结果表明，多区域综合空气污染控制策略和气候政策的结合，对上海来说是具有成本效益的。
