Garcia Serpa Osorio-de-Castro Claudia, Silva Miranda Elaine, Machado de Freitas Carlos, Rochel de Camargo Kenneth, Cranmer Hilarie Hartel
Claudia Garcia Serpa Osorio-de-Castro is with the Departamento de Política de Medicamentos e Assistência Farmacêutica, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Elaine Silva Miranda is with the Departamento de Farmácia e Administração Farmacêutica, Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, Brazil. Carlos Machado de Freitas is with the Centro de Estudos e Pesquisas em Emergências e Desastres em Saúde, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Rio de Janeiro. Kenneth Rochel de Camargo Jr is with the Departamento de Planejamento e Administração em Saúde, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro. Hilarie H. Cranmer is with the Department of Global Health and Population, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA.
Am J Public Health. 2017 Jun;107(6):960-965. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.303705. Epub 2017 Apr 20.
We analyzed uncertainties and complexities of the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil, and we discuss risk reduction for future emergencies. We present the public health situation in Brazil and concurrent determinants of the epidemic and the knowledge gaps that persist despite building evidence from research, making public health decisions difficult. Brazil has adopted active measures, but producing desired outcomes may be uncertain because of partial or unavailable information. Reducing population group vulnerabilities and acting on environmental issues are medium- to long-term measures. Simultaneously dealing with information gaps, uncontrolled disease spread, and vulnerabilities is a new risk scenario and must be approached decisively to face emerging biothreats.
我们分析了巴西寨卡病毒疫情的不确定性和复杂性，并讨论了未来应对紧急情况时降低风险的措施。我们介绍了巴西的公共卫生状况、疫情的并发决定因素以及尽管已有研究证据但仍存在的知识空白，这使得公共卫生决策变得困难。巴西已采取积极措施，但由于信息不完整或无法获取，可能难以产生预期效果。减少人群脆弱性以及解决环境问题属于中长期措施。同时应对信息缺口、疾病的无控制传播和脆弱性是一种新的风险情况，必须果断应对以面对新出现的生物威胁。
